Counter-Strike: Omega vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 1 Winner

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Academy (67%) · Inner Circle Academy at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Omega31¢Inner Circle Academy69¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle Academy

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle Academy 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$382.46

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 69.5¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle Academy at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Academy

6 of 9 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Omega31%

Inner Circle Academy70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle Academy6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL+$354.39

Omega3 traders

Total Value$497.83

Total Shares675

Combined PnL+$28.07

Inner Circle Academy — 67%Omega — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Omegaavg 48.1¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	-$449.95	28% 212-558 (770)
└ Inner Circle Academy leg	Inner Circle Academyavg 68.7¢	$720.45	$728.46	-$124.11
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 48.1¢	$889.81	$563.97	-$325.84
31 319113331313111	Inner Circle Academyavg 56.9¢	$2.5K	$559.09	+$111.99	57% 150-115 (265)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 54.8¢	$1.2K	$545.24	+$4.07	60% 133-89 (222)
└ Inner Circle Academy leg	Inner Circle Academyavg 54.8¢	$297.82	$388.86	+$17.74
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 52.8¢	$289.91	$156.38	-$13.67
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Inner Circle Academyavg 39¢	$253.77	$452.23	+$198.46	44% 112-144 (256)
NO NotJumpCTR	Omegaavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	53% 634-568 (1202)
CR crabfavorARB<$100	Omegaavg 46¢	$305.43	$202.68	-$21.74	—
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 46¢	$166.52	$103.17	-$63.35
└ Inner Circle Academy leg	Inner Circle Academyavg 48¢	$66.85	$99.51	+$41.61
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 55.7¢	$137.36	$182.26	+$44.91	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
└ Inner Circle Academy leg	Inner Circle Academyavg 55.7¢	$103.7	$133.11	+$29.4
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 19.5¢	$33.65	$49.16	+$15.5
PA panpidaras1	Inner Circle Academyavg 43.6¢	$152.36	$147.59	+$45.72	11% 35-282 (317)
VeryLucky888CTR	Omegaavg 52¢	$230.81	$147.05	+$18.48	53% 1030-921 (1951)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	Omegaavg 50.8¢	$78.69	$88.28	+$9.59	— 9-10 (19)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Inner Circle Academyavg 65.5¢	$220.58	$81.7	-$3.31	51% 121-114 (235)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Omegaavg 29.8¢	$38.49	$51.23	+$12.75	37% 659-1143 (1802)
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 29.8¢	$21.68	$26.55	+$4.88
└ Inner Circle Academy leg	Inner Circle Academyavg 43.3¢	$16.81	$24.68	+$7.87
poshposh<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 64¢	$13.86	$14.72	+$0.87	47% 786-902 (1688)
LR lryyy<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 57.5¢	$12.65	$13.31	+$0.66	45% 595-734 (1329)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$2,288.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$449.95

Record

28%

212-558 (770)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Academy$720.4568.7¢-$124.11

Omega$889.8148.1¢-$325.84

319113331313111

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$2,547.61

Value

$559.09

PnL

+$111.99

Record

57%

150-115 (265)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$1,189.9

Value

$545.24

PnL

+$4.07

Record

60%

133-89 (222)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Academy$297.8254.8¢+$17.74

Omega$289.9152.8¢-$13.67

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$253.77

Value

$452.23

PnL

+$198.46

Record

44%

112-144 (256)

NotJumpCTR

Omega

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

crabfavorARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$305.43

Value

$202.68

PnL

-$21.74

Record

—

Both legs:

Omega$166.5246¢-$63.35

Inner Circle Academy$66.8548¢+$41.61

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$137.36

Value

$182.26

PnL

+$44.91

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Academy$103.755.7¢+$29.4

Omega$33.6519.5¢+$15.5

panpidaras1

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$152.36

Value

$147.59

PnL

+$45.72

Record

11%

35-282 (317)

VeryLucky888CTR

Omega

Invested

$230.81

Value

$147.05

PnL

+$18.48

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

Omega

Invested

$78.69

Value

$88.28

PnL

+$9.59

Record

—

9-10 (19)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$220.58

Value

$81.7

PnL

-$3.31

Record

51%

121-114 (235)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$38.49

Value

$51.23

PnL

+$12.75

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

Both legs:

Omega$21.6829.8¢+$4.88

Inner Circle Academy$16.8143.3¢+$7.87

poshposh<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$13.86

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$0.87

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

lryyy<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$12.65

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$0.66

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle Academy at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Academy

6 of 9 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.