Counter-Strike: Omega vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Omega (31%) · Omega at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Omega56¢Inner Circle Academy44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Omega

Consensus Traders

Omega 31%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$85.02

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOmega at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Omega

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Omega56%

Inner Circle Academy45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omega4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,853

Combined PnL+$138.54

Inner Circle Academy9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,397

Combined PnL-$53.53

Omega — 31%Inner Circle Academy — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Omega. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle Academy 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedInner Circle Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle Academy 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Omegaavg 53.5¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$112.79	56% 156-125 (281)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 46¢	$794.98	$769.05	-$25.92	59% 33-23 (56)
VeryLucky888CTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 45.2¢	$755.5	$752.25	-$3.25	53% 1030-921 (1951)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Omegaavg 53¢	$388.65	$403.31	+$14.67	2% 11-509 (520)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 46¢	$325.7	$325.42	-$0.29	37% 657-1141 (1798)
CI cigarettesCTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 45¢	$202.5	$202.5	+$0	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GA GaditimaCTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 51.2¢	$194.16	$170.71	-$23.45	47% 224-251 (475)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Omegaavg 55¢	$108.35	$109.34	+$0.98	22% 266-965 (1231)
JO johnsonboyy	Omegaavg 49¢	$98.98	$109.08	+$10.1	— 9-9 (18)
poshposhCTR<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 45.2¢	$94.46	$94.54	+$0.08	46% 781-902 (1683)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Inner Circle Academyavg 50¢	$414	$74.1	-$0	75% 112-37 (149)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 45¢	$49.95	$49.95	+$0	33% 88-181 (269)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Inner Circle Academyavg 46.3¢	$25	$24.3	-$0.7	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Omega

Invested

$3,062.38

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$112.79

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

JuiceFarmCTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$794.98

Value

$769.05

PnL

-$25.92

Record

59%

33-23 (56)

VeryLucky888CTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$755.5

Value

$752.25

PnL

-$3.25

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

JAMJAMJAM4

Omega

Invested

$388.65

Value

$403.31

PnL

+$14.67

Record

11-509 (520)

topdogbigboiCTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$325.7

Value

$325.42

PnL

-$0.29

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

cigarettesCTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$202.5

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

GaditimaCTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$194.16

Value

$170.71

PnL

-$23.45

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Omega

Invested

$108.35

Value

$109.34

PnL

+$0.98

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

johnsonboyy

Omega

Invested

$98.98

Value

$109.08

PnL

+$10.1

Record

—

9-9 (18)

poshposhCTR<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$94.46

Value

$94.54

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$414

Value

$74.1

PnL

-$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

biying99999CTR<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Inner Circle Academy

Invested

$25

Value

$24.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

NeutralOmega at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Omega

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Omega. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle Academy 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedInner Circle Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle Academy 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Omega wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.