Counter-Strike: OG vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (60%) · Iberian Soul at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

OG45¢Iberian Soul55¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$300.4

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

OG45%

Iberian Soul56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iberian Soul6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,717

Combined PnL-$345.44

OG4 traders

Total Value$721.56

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL+$45.04

Iberian Soul — 60%OG — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iberian Soul) and the top 1000 (6 on OG) disagree here.

ctrOG 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedIberian Soul 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000OG 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NU nuuki	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$824.97	$832.47	+$7.5	44% 132-170 (302)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	OGavg 61.6¢	$609.18	$628.51	+$19.32	54% 2422-2097 (4519)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 37.2¢	$245.84	$360.24	+$114.4
└ OG leg	OGavg 61.6¢	$363.35	$268.27	-$95.08
VeryLucky888	Iberian Soulavg 54.7¢	$820.4	$525	-$295.4	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	OGavg 45¢	$349.57	$361	+$11.43	53% 3195-2820 (6015)
TE testBruno2	Iberian Soulavg 53.2¢	$632.69	$246.71	-$45.73	58% 879-636 (1515)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	OGavg 72.5¢	$225.47	$181.05	+$8.56	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 33.9¢	$61.46	$100.48	+$59.3
└ OG leg	OGavg 72.5¢	$131.3	$80.56	-$50.74
0X 0x4f2CTR	OGavg 72.8¢	$207.83	$177.28	-$26.98	52% 9163-8552 (17715)
CC ccllarCTR	OGavg 45¢	$112.05	$171.81	+$59.76	46% 433-500 (933)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Iberian Soulavg 37.4¢	$67.97	$56.33	-$11.64	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Iberian Soulavg 31.2¢	$25.27	$25.11	-$0.16	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
poshposhCTR<$100	OGavg 64¢	$10.64	$11.47	+$0.83	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
HRTrading<$100	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$1.1	$1.09	-$0.01	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

nuuki

Iberian Soul

Invested

$824.97

Value

$832.47

PnL

+$7.5

Record

44%

132-170 (302)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Invested

$609.18

Value

$628.51

PnL

+$19.32

Record

54%

2422-2097 (4519)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$245.8437.2¢+$114.4

OG$363.3561.6¢-$95.08

VeryLucky888

Iberian Soul

Invested

$820.4

Value

$525

PnL

-$295.4

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Invested

$349.57

Value

$361

PnL

+$11.43

Record

53%

3195-2820 (6015)

testBruno2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$632.69

Value

$246.71

PnL

-$45.73

Record

58%

879-636 (1515)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Invested

$225.47

Value

$181.05

PnL

+$8.56

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$61.4633.9¢+$59.3

OG$131.372.5¢-$50.74

0x4f2CTR

Invested

$207.83

Value

$177.28

PnL

-$26.98

Record

52%

9163-8552 (17715)

ccllarCTR

Invested

$112.05

Value

$171.81

PnL

+$59.76

Record

46%

433-500 (933)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$67.97

Value

$56.33

PnL

-$11.64

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

topdogbigboi<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$25.27

Value

$25.11

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$10.64

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$0.83

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

HRTrading<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iberian Soul) and the top 1000 (6 on OG) disagree here.

ctrOG 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedIberian Soul 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000OG 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.