Counter-Strike: OG vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #11 Group A

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold OG (83%) · OG at 96¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 7

OG96¢G2 Ares4¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 83%

Total Value

$29.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 96¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOG at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

OG96%

G2 Ares4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG10 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares32,031

Combined PnL+$2.6K

G2 Ares2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares31,284

Combined PnL$-5.3K

OG — 83%G2 Ares — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOG 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000OG 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	OGavg 74¢	$18.0K	$20.5K	+$2.6K	53% 794-695 (1489)
RA Rayaya	OGavg 76.1¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$107.36	61% 1225-797 (2022)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	G2 Aresavg 25.5¢	$8.0K	$2.7K	$-5.3K	55% 245-204 (449)
31 319113331313111	OGavg 79.7¢	$902.15	$958.5	+$56.34	59% 411-283 (694)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	OGavg 76¢	$456	$444	-$12	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
GA Gaditima	OGavg 77.3¢	$359.67	$430.16	+$70.48	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
alpheclabs2	OGavg 77¢	$222.53	$264.44	+$41.91	47% 1363-1539 (2902)
CI cigarettes<$100	OGavg 81.5¢	$81.5	$88.5	+$7	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
38 38791873984189<$100	OGavg 77¢	$77	$85.5	+$8.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	OGavg 77.9¢	$67.87	$82.76	+$14.89	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	OGavg 76.9¢	$3.85	$3.78	-$0.07	45% 203-248 (451)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	G2 Aresavg 24¢	$2.16	$2.25	+$0.09	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

Wiretransferxyz

Invested

$17,986.66

Value

$20.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

794-695 (1489)

Rayaya

Invested

$3,807.36

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$107.36

Record

61%

1225-797 (2022)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

G2 Ares

Invested

$7,977.19

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

55%

245-204 (449)

319113331313111

Invested

$902.15

Value

$958.5

PnL

+$56.34

Record

59%

411-283 (694)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$456

Value

$444

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

Gaditima

Invested

$359.67

Value

$430.16

PnL

+$70.48

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

alpheclabs2

Invested

$222.53

Value

$264.44

PnL

+$41.91

Record

47%

1363-1539 (2902)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$81.5

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$7

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$77

Value

$85.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$67.87

Value

$82.76

PnL

+$14.89

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

glennyorkshire<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

203-248 (451)

Pan9XCTR<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOG 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000OG 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.