Counter-Strike: OG vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold OG (17%) · OG at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31

OG>99¢BC.Game Esports<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$525.03

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

OG100%

BC.Game Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG1 trader

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,900

Combined PnL+$1.95

BC.Game Esports5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,814

Combined PnL+$523.08

OG — 17%BC.Game Esports — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	OGavg 99.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$1.95	96% 300-14 (314)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	OGavg 54.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$30.68	53% 2388-2089 (4477)
└ OG leg	OGavg 54.6¢	$651.89	$739.64	+$87.75
└ BC.Game Esports leg	BC.Game Esportsavg 43.2¢	$475.26	$418.18	-$57.08
latvian.demonCTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 37.4¢	$336.5	$634.5	+$298	54% 682-580 (1262)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 48.5¢	$485.1	$495	+$9.9	52% 1238-1128 (2366)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 66.5¢	$242	$256.43	+$14.43	53% 2005-1805 (3810)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 17¢	$42.5	$176.25	+$133.75	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
AO aomendushen008CTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 15.7¢	$47	$114	+$67	50% 937-921 (1858)

Vps1

Invested

$3,896.1

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.95

Record

96%

300-14 (314)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Invested

$1,127.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.68

Record

53%

2388-2089 (4477)

Both legs:

OG$651.8954.6¢+$87.75

BC.Game Esports$475.2643.2¢-$57.08

latvian.demonCTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$336.5

Value

$634.5

PnL

+$298

Record

54%

682-580 (1262)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$485.1

Value

$495

PnL

+$9.9

Record

52%

1238-1128 (2366)

RebornAthenaCTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$242

Value

$256.43

PnL

+$14.43

Record

53%

2005-1805 (3810)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$42.5

Value

$176.25

PnL

+$133.75

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

aomendushen008CTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$47

Value

$114

PnL

+$67

Record

50%

937-921 (1858)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.