Counter-Strike: OG vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Circuito Retake Group D

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold OG (71%) · OG at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31

OG>99¢BC.Game Esports<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$478.1

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

OG100%

BC.Game Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares8,533

Combined PnL+$473.66

BC.Game Esports2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,716

Combined PnL+$4.44

OG — 71%BC.Game Esports — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	OGavg 99.9¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$2.45	96% 300-14 (314)
IV Ivan948CTR	BC.Game Esportsavg 41.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$33.34	45% 69-86 (155)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	OGavg 57.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$88.88	53% 2388-2089 (4477)
└ OG leg	OGavg 57.9¢	$985.27	$1.3K	+$281.93
└ BC.Game Esports leg	BC.Game Esportsavg 37¢	$621.8	$428.76	-$193.05
AM ameisgoat11	OGavg 70.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9	47% 2290-2563 (4853)
JO JohnnyWins	OGavg 24.6¢	$469.44	$867.02	+$397.58	43% 120-161 (281)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	OGavg 58.1¢	$297.01	$360.6	+$63.59	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
US User7429<$100	OGavg 67.1¢	$56.18	$48.81	+$1.04	55% 8250-6667 (14917)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BC.Game Esportsavg 16.2¢	$28.99	$0.09	-$28.9	38% 3268-5352 (8620)

Vps1

Invested

$4,895.1

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.45

Record

96%

300-14 (314)

Ivan948CTR

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$1,895.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$33.34

Record

45%

69-86 (155)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Invested

$1,607.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$88.88

Record

53%

2388-2089 (4477)

Both legs:

OG$985.2757.9¢+$281.93

BC.Game Esports$621.837¢-$193.05

ameisgoat11

Invested

$1,154.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

JohnnyWins

Invested

$469.44

Value

$867.02

PnL

+$397.58

Record

43%

120-161 (281)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$297.01

Value

$360.6

PnL

+$63.59

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

User7429<$100

Invested

$56.18

Value

$48.81

PnL

+$1.04

Record

55%

8250-6667 (14917)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BC.Game Esports

Invested

$28.99

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$28.9

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.