Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nexus, while the market favors BakS eSports (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (71%) · Nexus at 48¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Nexus
7
Nexus 71%
$40.3K
-$88.05
46.2¢ → 47.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNexus at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors BakS eSports 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | BakS eSportsavg 53.9¢ | $20.0K | $19.5K | -$526.04 | 55% 131-109 (240) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Nexusavg 46¢ | $14.1K | $14.6K | +$475.79 | 56% 380-299 (679) |
VI vibing123CTR | Nexusavg 47¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | -$60 | 63% 1092-649 (1741) |
SE sentrioCTR | Nexusavg 46¢ | $597.48 | $616.96 | +$19.48 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Nexusavg 46¢ | $74.93 | $77.37 | +$2.44 | — 4-4 (8) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Nexusavg 44¢ | $15.15 | $15.03 | -$0.12 | 23% 33-111 (144) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 51¢ | $4.08 | $4.48 | +$0.4 | 49% 629-666 (1295) |
Invested
$19,979.96
Value
$19.5K
PnL
-$526.04
Record
55%
131-109 (240)
Invested
$14,122.18
Value
$14.6K
PnL
+$475.79
Record
56%
380-299 (679)
Invested
$5,639.98
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$60
Record
63%
1092-649 (1741)
Invested
$597.48
Value
$616.96
PnL
+$19.48
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$77.37
PnL
+$2.44
Record
—
4-4 (8)
Invested
$15.15
Value
$15.03
PnL
-$0.12
Record
23%
33-111 (144)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.4
Record
49%
629-666 (1295)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.