Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs PRIVATE (BO3) - CyberClash Playoffs

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuclear TigeRES (43%) · Nuclear TigeRES at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30

Nuclear TigeRES56¢PRIVATE44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nuclear TigeRES

Consensus Traders

Nuclear TigeRES 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$23.19

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuclear TigeRES56%

PRIVATE45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuclear TigeRES3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,347

Combined PnL+$24.07

PRIVATE4 traders

Total Value$226.52

Total Shares496

Combined PnL-$0.88

Nuclear TigeRES — 43%PRIVATE — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Nuclear TigeRESavg 55¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$27.5	55% 299-249 (548)
VI vibing123	Nuclear TigeRESavg 52¢	$398.41	$394.58	-$3.83	52% 1561-1444 (3005)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PRIVATEavg 44¢	$204.4	$209.66	+$5.26	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
└ PRIVATE leg	PRIVATEavg 44¢	$122.32	$123.71	+$1.39
└ Nuclear TigeRES leg	Nuclear TigeRESavg 53¢	$82.08	$85.95	+$3.87
TO topdogbigboiCTR	PRIVATEavg 45¢	$132.24	$130.71	-$1.53	39% 3159-4962 (8121)
LU LucasCosta.CTR<$100	PRIVATEavg 48¢	$72	$72.75	+$0.75	41% 331-473 (804)
RO rocky42019<$100	Nuclear TigeRESavg 51¢	$40.8	$41.2	+$0.4	42% 1713-2334 (4047)
poshposhCTR<$100	PRIVATEavg 44.9¢	$17.08	$16.91	-$0.17	59% 9885-6859 (16744)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100	PRIVATEavg 44¢	$6.08	$6.15	+$0.07	51% 342-335 (677)

lllllllIlll

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$3,025.38

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$27.5

Record

55%

299-249 (548)

vibing123

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$398.41

Value

$394.58

PnL

-$3.83

Record

52%

1561-1444 (3005)

38791873984189ARB<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$204.4

Value

$209.66

PnL

+$5.26

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

Both legs:

PRIVATE$122.3244¢+$1.39

Nuclear TigeRES$82.0853¢+$3.87

topdogbigboiCTR

PRIVATE

Invested

$132.24

Value

$130.71

PnL

-$1.53

Record

39%

3159-4962 (8121)

LucasCosta.CTR<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$72

Value

$72.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

41%

331-473 (804)

rocky42019<$100

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$40.8

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

1713-2334 (4047)

poshposhCTR<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$17.08

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.17

Record

59%

9885-6859 (16744)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100

PRIVATE

Invested

$6.08

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

342-335 (677)

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuclear TigeRES wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.