Counter-Strike: NRG vs Wildcard (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wildcard (75%) · Wildcard at 66¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Wildcard
4
Wildcard 75%
3 arb excluded
$10.7K
$77.02
56.6¢ → 65.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWildcard at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PN pnhctARB<$100 | NRGavg 47.1¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$120.11 | 54% 527-456 (983) |
| └ NRG leg | NRGavg 47.1¢ | $3.4K | $3.2K | -$115.49 | |
| └ Wildcard leg | Wildcardavg 54.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$4.62 | |
AA aaaa298ARB<$100 | Wildcardavg 57.2¢ | $3.5K | $3.3K | -$252.11 | 59% 790-552 (1342) |
| └ Wildcard leg | Wildcardavg 57.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$392.16 | |
| └ NRG leg | NRGavg 54¢ | $1.5K | $901.97 | -$644.27 | |
II iii252 | Wildcardavg 57.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$157.61 | 57% 1140-874 (2014) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | NRGavg 51.9¢ | $268.72 | $186.55 | -$82.16 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
| └ NRG leg | NRGavg 51.9¢ | $235.9 | $143.2 | -$92.71 | |
| └ Wildcard leg | Wildcardavg 51.8¢ | $32.81 | $43.36 | +$10.54 | |
TO TommyLeePeeca | Wildcardavg 54.2¢ | $893.08 | $155.2 | -$59.31 | 53% 1102-969 (2071) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | NRGavg 43.7¢ | $74.1 | $53.37 | -$20.73 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Wildcardavg 39¢ | $43.34 | $42.78 | -$0.56 | 50% 19294-19658 (38952) |
Invested
$4,942.79
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$120.11
Record
54%
527-456 (983)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,530.39
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$252.11
Record
59%
790-552 (1342)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,985.57
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$157.61
Record
57%
1140-874 (2014)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$268.72
Value
$186.55
PnL
-$82.16
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
Both legs:
Invested
$893.08
Value
$155.2
PnL
-$59.31
Record
53%
1102-969 (2071)
Invested
$74.1
Value
$53.37
PnL
-$20.73
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Invested
$43.34
Value
$42.78
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
19294-19658 (38952)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.