Counter-Strike: NEXVOID vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Playoffs
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FlyQuest (88%) · FlyQuest at 96¢ · $917 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
FlyQuest
8
FlyQuest 88%
$916.99
-$22.9
75.8¢ → 96.4¢
+27% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyQuest at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | FlyQuestavg 71.1¢ | $512.38 | $526.98 | +$14.6 | — |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | FlyQuestavg 79.5¢ | $114.15 | $111.97 | -$2.18 | 53% 2350-2073 (4423) |
 poshposh | FlyQuestavg 97.8¢ | $108.29 | $109.07 | +$0.78 | 59% 9768-6750 (16518) |
EF 0xefde...6505<$100 | FlyQuestavg 70¢ | $70 | $72.5 | +$2.5 | 38% 366-600 (966) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | FlyQuestavg 82.3¢ | $60.55 | $63.66 | +$3.1 | 52% 9124-8523 (17647) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | FlyQuestavg 72¢ | $20 | $20.14 | +$0.14 | 67% 23233-11643 (34876) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | NEXVOIDavg 18.5¢ | $52.01 | $10.14 | -$41.87 | — |
 HRTrading<$100 | FlyQuestavg 71.4¢ | $2.5 | $2.54 | +$0.04 | 52% 3869-3521 (7390) |
Invested
$512.38
Value
$526.98
PnL
+$14.6
Record
—
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$114.15
Value
$111.97
PnL
-$2.18
Record
53%
2350-2073 (4423)
poshposhInvested
$108.29
Value
$109.07
PnL
+$0.78
Record
59%
9768-6750 (16518)
Invested
$70
Value
$72.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
38%
366-600 (966)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$63.66
PnL
+$3.1
Record
52%
9124-8523 (17647)
Invested
$20
Value
$20.14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
67%
23233-11643 (34876)
Invested
$52.01
Value
$10.14
PnL
-$41.87
Record
—
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.54
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3869-3521 (7390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.