Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (60%) · Vitality at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
5
Vitality 60%
$6.8K
$73.97
58.8¢ → 56.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reformedx | Vitalityavg 59¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$0 | 52% 809-758 (1567) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | Vitalityavg 59¢ | $885 | $885 | +$0 | 33% 6261-12977 (19238) |
TR TrippleEXCTR | Nemigaavg 41¢ | $749.88 | $749.88 | -$0 | 58% 294-214 (508) |
 hammyandcheese | Vitalityavg 57¢ | $570 | $585 | +$15 | 56% 374-294 (668) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Nemigaavg 38¢ | $584.36 | $495.83 | +$58.97 | 58% 99-72 (171) |
ReformedxInvested
$4,130
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
809-758 (1567)
Invested
$885
Value
$885
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
6261-12977 (19238)
Invested
$749.88
Value
$749.88
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
294-214 (508)
hammyandcheeseInvested
$570
Value
$585
PnL
+$15
Record
56%
374-294 (668)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$584.36
Value
$495.83
PnL
+$58.97
Record
58%
99-72 (171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.