Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Vitality — but Nemiga won instead.

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

Resolved Nemiga. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Vitality. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Vitality 76%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.3K

Combined PnL

$-13.0K

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

18 of 29 top traders (62%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga100%

Vitality0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares67,874

Combined PnL$-37.3K

Nemiga11 traders

Total Value$46.9K

Total Shares46,919

Combined PnL+$24.3K

Vitality — 62%Nemiga — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	Nemigaavg 61.1¢	$37.5K	$36.6K	-$824.26	54% 494-424 (918)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 61.1¢	$22.4K	$36.6K	+$14.2K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 42¢	$15.1K	—	$-15.1K
II iii252ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 64.2¢	$26.4K	$33.1K	+$7.0K	56% 1126-867 (1993)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 14.4¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 64.2¢	$21.3K	$33.1K	+$12.0K
RN1ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 60.2¢	$28.3K	$23.8K	$-4.5K	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 39.2¢	$14.0K	—	$-14.0K
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 60.2¢	$14.4K	$23.8K	+$9.5K
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Vitalityavg 52.9¢	$19.3K	—	$-19.3K	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
cruzNBA	Nemigaavg 47.6¢	$15.4K	$32.3K	+$16.9K	42% 400-560 (960)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 58.9¢	$10.3K	$10.2K	-$79.92	52% 13719-12523 (26242)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 58.9¢	$6.0K	$10.2K	+$4.2K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 41.8¢	$4.3K	—	$-4.3K
FK fkALARB<$100	Nemigaavg 54.5¢	$5.2K	$7.3K	+$1.9K	63% 2025-1197 (3222)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 54.5¢	$4.0K	$7.3K	+$3.2K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 17.6¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
46 467j6yj	Nemigaavg 93.9¢	$12.9K	$13.7K	+$832.31	97% 3293-115 (3408)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	Nemigaavg 56.5¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$876.45	48% 393-421 (814)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 56.5¢	$2.7K	$4.8K	+$2.1K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 54¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Vitalityavg 44.7¢	$2.8K	—	$-3.3K	51% 72-68 (140)
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 71.8¢	$15.2K	$2.5K	+$5.6K	59% 773-548 (1321)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 71.8¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$5.8K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 11¢	$277.24	—	-$277.24
forsenxdCTR	Vitalityavg 71¢	$4.9K	—	$-3.5K	53% 1057-923 (1980)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Vitalityavg 48.7¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	52% 1221-1120 (2341)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 64.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$319.54	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 56.8¢	$849.04	$1.5K	+$645.03
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 64.5¢	$964.57	—	-$964.57
TG tghj20CTR	Vitalityavg 45.8¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.2K	48% 56-61 (117)
dodsterbotCTR	Vitalityavg 71¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	46% 628-726 (1354)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Vitalityavg 57¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.2K	55% 299-249 (548)
VeryLucky888CTR	Vitalityavg 71.3¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
CL CLj0711CTR	Vitalityavg 38.5¢	$770	—	-$770	44% 291-374 (665)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Vitalityavg 55.6¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.1K	52% 454-426 (880)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Vitalityavg 58.3¢	$600	—	-$600	53% 2000-1796 (3796)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Vitalityavg 59.8¢	$609.52	—	-$584.05	52% 194-176 (370)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Nemigaavg 99¢	$857.83	$866.49	+$8.66	86% 5080-857 (5937)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Vitalityavg 43¢	$301	—	-$301	51% 1396-1343 (2739)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 54.9¢	$500.78	$370.9	+$115.12	52% 3691-3345 (7036)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 54.9¢	$203.46	$370.9	+$181.41
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 54.4¢	$66.29	—	-$66.29

pnhctARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$37,451.57

Value

$36.6K

PnL

-$824.26

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

Both legs:

Nemiga$22,393.861.1¢+$14.2K

Vitality$15,057.7742¢$-15.1K

iii252ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$26,445.7

Value

$33.1K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

56%

1126-867 (1993)

Both legs:

Vitality$5,001.9814.4¢$-5.0K

Nemiga$21,276.864.2¢+$12.0K

RN1ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$28,310.93

Value

$23.8K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

Both legs:

Vitality$13,958.839.2¢$-14.0K

Nemiga$14,352.1360.2¢+$9.5K

omnibus-076daaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$19,258.56

Value

—

PnL

$-19.3K

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

cruzNBA

Nemiga

Invested

$15,369.01

Value

$32.3K

PnL

+$16.9K

Record

42%

400-560 (960)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$10,297.18

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$79.92

Record

52%

13719-12523 (26242)

Both legs:

Nemiga$6,016.8258.9¢+$4.2K

Vitality$4,280.3641.8¢$-4.3K

fkALARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$5,224.88

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

63%

2025-1197 (3222)

Both legs:

Nemiga$3,991.4154.5¢+$3.2K

Vitality$1,233.4717.6¢$-1.2K

467j6yj

Nemiga

Invested

$12,850.91

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$832.31

Record

97%

3293-115 (3408)

facaigegeARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$3,899.55

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$876.45

Record

48%

393-421 (814)

Both legs:

Nemiga$2,699.6756.5¢+$2.1K

Vitality$1,199.8854¢$-1.2K

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,785.06

Value

—

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

51%

72-68 (140)

aaaa298ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$15,159.06

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

59%

773-548 (1321)

Both legs:

Nemiga$1,808.3471.8¢+$5.8K

Vitality$277.2411¢-$277.24

forsenxdCTR

Vitality

Invested

$4,906.05

Value

—

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

53%

1057-923 (1980)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,102.19

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

52%

1221-1120 (2341)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,813.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$319.54

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

Both legs:

Nemiga$849.0456.8¢+$645.03

Vitality$964.5764.5¢-$964.57

tghj20CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,068.64

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

56-61 (117)

dodsterbotCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,599.26

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

46%

628-726 (1354)

lllllllIlllCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,268.33

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

299-249 (548)

VeryLucky888CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,426.5

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

CLj0711CTR

Vitality

Invested

$770

Value

—

PnL

-$770

Record

44%

291-374 (665)

delacsynzy1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,000

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

454-426 (880)

RebornAthenaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$600

Value

—

PnL

-$600

Record

53%

2000-1796 (3796)

panpidaras1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$609.52

Value

—

PnL

-$584.05

Record

52%

194-176 (370)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Nemiga

Invested

$857.83

Value

$866.49

PnL

+$8.66

Record

86%

5080-857 (5937)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Vitality

Invested

$301

Value

—

PnL

-$301

Record

51%

1396-1343 (2739)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$500.78

Value

$370.9

PnL

+$115.12

Record

52%

3691-3345 (7036)

Both legs:

Nemiga$203.4654.9¢+$181.41

Vitality$66.2954.4¢-$66.29

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

18 of 29 top traders (62%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd8c03dff...f44453

Slug

cs2-nemi1-vit-2026-10-30-game1

Traders in this Market

pnhct

Arbitrage — excluded

iii252

Arbitrage — excluded

RN1

Arbitrage — excluded

omnibus-076daa

Vitality — $0

cruzNBA

Nemiga — $32.3K

+$16.9K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Arbitrage — excluded

fkAL

Arbitrage — excluded

467j6yj

Nemiga — $13.7K

+$832.31

facaigege

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$876.45

AnibalAugustoSardinha

CTR

Vitality — $0

$-3.3K

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