Games Total: O/U 3.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$587.01

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,335

Combined PnL+$894.66

Under6 traders

Total Value$305.66

Total Shares2,073

Combined PnL-$307.65

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 77.1¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$814.29	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 79.4¢	$439.07	$511.24	+$72.17	51% 1814-1741 (3555)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 29.7¢	$252.25	$119	-$133.25	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 77.9¢	$81.14	$89.35	+$8.21	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
forsenxdCTR	Underavg 28¢	$464.41	$85.92	-$44.12	53% 1069-935 (2004)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 31¢	$155	$70	-$85	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$67.15	$30.33	-$36.83	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$3.42	$0.24	-$3.18	62% 1149-697 (1846)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$28.14	$0.17	-$5.28	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,915.2

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$814.29

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$439.07

Value

$511.24

PnL

+$72.17

Record

51%

1814-1741 (3555)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$252.25

Value

$119

PnL

-$133.25

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$81.14

Value

$89.35

PnL

+$8.21

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

forsenxdCTR

Under

Invested

$464.41

Value

$85.92

PnL

-$44.12

Record

53%

1069-935 (2004)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$155

Value

$70

PnL

-$85

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.15

Value

$30.33

PnL

-$36.83

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.18

Record

62%

1149-697 (1846)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.14

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$5.28

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.