Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nemiga, while the market favors FURIA (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (40%) · Nemiga at 49¢ · $33K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Nemiga
5
Nemiga 40%
$32.7K
$49.73
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNemiga at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 norrisfanCTR | Nemigaavg 48¢ | $16.7K | $16.9K | +$174.48 | 42% 478-659 (1137) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | FURIAavg 52¢ | $13.0K | $12.9K | -$124.81 | 50% 1232-1226 (2458) |
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186 | FURIAavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$0 | 55% 289-237 (526) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | FURIAavg 52¢ | $780 | $780 | +$0 | 33% 6261-12980 (19241) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Nemigaavg 47¢ | $1.93 | $1.99 | +$0.06 | 39% 410-654 (1064) |
norrisfanCTRInvested
$16,749.92
Value
$16.9K
PnL
+$174.48
Record
42%
478-659 (1137)
Invested
$13,006.07
Value
$12.9K
PnL
-$124.81
Record
50%
1232-1226 (2458)
Invested
$2,079.48
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
289-237 (526)
Invested
$780
Value
$780
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
6261-12980 (19241)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$0.06
Record
39%
410-654 (1064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.