Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 4 Winner

20 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (61%) · Nemiga at 100¢ · $278K held · ends Oct 31

Nemiga>99¢FURIA<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$278.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 100¢

+102% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

20 of 33 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga100%

FURIA0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA13 traders

Total Value$77.4K

Total Shares120,369

Combined PnL-$557.74

Nemiga20 traders

Total Value$93.9K

Total Shares179,885

Combined PnL$-1.3K

FURIA — 39%Nemiga — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	Nemigaavg 53.6¢	$55.8K	$56.3K	+$461.46	53% 511-447 (958)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 53.6¢	$31.2K	$32.3K	+$1.1K
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 45.7¢	$24.6K	$24.0K	-$629.8
LL lllllllIlllCTR	FURIAavg 66¢	$49.5K	$49.1K	-$375	54% 302-256 (558)
II iii252ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 51¢	$35.8K	$45.5K	+$9.6K	57% 1139-870 (2009)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 51¢	$21.1K	$23.0K	+$1.9K
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 29.1¢	$14.7K	$22.5K	+$7.8K
AA aaaa298	Nemigaavg 61.1¢	$21.9K	$20.9K	+$2.9K	59% 787-551 (1338)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Nemigaavg 44.2¢	$14.4K	$14.1K	-$235.83	54% 2479-2133 (4612)
FR fraagenCTR	FURIAavg 66¢	$10.4K	$10.3K	-$79	45% 55-67 (122)
RE redvinny	Nemigaavg 78.8¢	$18.7K	$9.5K	$-3.5K	75% 1505-502 (2007)
CORGII	Nemigaavg 34¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$102.34	41% 394-565 (959)
FK fkAL	Nemigaavg 34.6¢	$3.6K	$6.9K	+$3.4K	63% 2037-1204 (3241)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Nemigaavg 34¢	$4.0K	$6.5K	+$2.4K	52% 77-71 (148)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nemigaavg 56.8¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$24.63	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	Nemigaavg 51.2¢	$5.9K	$5.1K	-$753.71	49% 405-426 (831)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$380.53
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 63.6¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$373.18
SP spartachioCTR	FURIAavg 66¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$38.88	48% 699-753 (1452)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Nemigaavg 58.2¢	$5.5K	$4.7K	-$831.53	43% 340-452 (792)
UN Unknownpoluy	Nemigaavg 34.8¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$35.26	43% 103-134 (237)
GA gaclfz	Nemigaavg 73¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$56.01	73% 1263-470 (1733)
cruzNBA	Nemigaavg 51.8¢	$5.1K	$3.4K	$-1.7K	42% 403-562 (965)
KateBollingerCTR	FURIAavg 65¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$25	68% 1745-809 (2554)
RA RayayaCTR	FURIAavg 66¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$18.88	60% 1176-775 (1951)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	FURIAavg 67¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$49.25	51% 629-594 (1223)
A8 a8999	Nemigaavg 35.5¢	$2.6K	$1.5K	$-1.1K	44% 1092-1396 (2488)
ReformedxCTR	FURIAavg 66¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$465	52% 825-774 (1599)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Nemigaavg 58.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$42.53	53% 3190-2813 (6003)
FR frohp5	Nemigaavg 46.1¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	-$668.99	65% 1984-1057 (3041)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	FURIAavg 39.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$23.74	51% 1816-1743 (3559)

pnhctARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$55,793.57

Value

$56.3K

PnL

+$461.46

Record

53%

511-447 (958)

Both legs:

Nemiga$31,194.6553.6¢+$1.1K

FURIA$24,598.9145.7¢-$629.8

lllllllIlllCTR

FURIA

Invested

$49,499.92

Value

$49.1K

PnL

-$375

Record

54%

302-256 (558)

iii252ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$35,813.91

Value

$45.5K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

57%

1139-870 (2009)

Both legs:

Nemiga$21,103.5951¢+$1.9K

FURIA$14,710.3129.1¢+$7.8K

aaaa298

Nemiga

Invested

$21,942.3

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

59%

787-551 (1338)

THEHIGHLIFE

Nemiga

Invested

$14,383.96

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$235.83

Record

54%

2479-2133 (4612)

fraagenCTR

FURIA

Invested

$10,428

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$79

Record

45%

55-67 (122)

redvinny

Nemiga

Invested

$18,719.72

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

75%

1505-502 (2007)

CORGII

Nemiga

Invested

$6,959.41

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$102.34

Record

41%

394-565 (959)

fkAL

Nemiga

Invested

$3,597.65

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

63%

2037-1204 (3241)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Nemiga

Invested

$4,046.32

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

77-71 (148)

omnibus-076daa

Nemiga

Invested

$5,809.86

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$24.63

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

facaigegeARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$5,886.87

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$753.71

Record

49%

405-426 (831)

Both legs:

Nemiga$3,131.0951.2¢-$380.53

FURIA$2,755.7863.6¢-$373.18

spartachioCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,132.82

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$38.88

Record

48%

699-753 (1452)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Nemiga

Invested

$5,544.01

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$831.53

Record

43%

340-452 (792)

Unknownpoluy

Nemiga

Invested

$4,275.04

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$35.26

Record

43%

103-134 (237)

gaclfz

Nemiga

Invested

$4,071.89

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$56.01

Record

73%

1263-470 (1733)

cruzNBA

Nemiga

Invested

$5,106.45

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

42%

403-562 (965)

KateBollingerCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,249.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

68%

1745-809 (2554)

RayayaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,687.73

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$18.88

Record

60%

1176-775 (1951)

nobody2somebodyCTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$49.25

Record

51%

629-594 (1223)

a8999

Nemiga

Invested

$2,570

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

44%

1092-1396 (2488)

ReformedxCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,980

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$465

Record

52%

825-774 (1599)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Nemiga

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$42.53

Record

53%

3190-2813 (6003)

frohp5

Nemiga

Invested

$2,511

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$668.99

Record

65%

1984-1057 (3041)

yishiwuchengCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,211.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.74

Record

51%

1816-1743 (3559)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

20 of 33 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.