Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 3 Winner

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (53%) · FURIA at 60¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 31

Nemiga41¢FURIA59¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 53%

Total Value

$46.9K

Combined PnL

$186.64

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga41%

FURIA60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA9 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares43,482

Combined PnL-$240.13

Nemiga8 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares50,740

Combined PnL+$426.77

FURIA — 53%Nemiga — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	FURIAavg 58¢	$16.9K	$17.0K	+$145.52	54% 302-256 (558)
RN1CTR	Nemigaavg 43.6¢	$9.9K	$9.4K	-$469.63	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
IV Ivan948CTR	Nemigaavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.6K	+$400	44% 71-91 (162)
A8 a8999	FURIAavg 55.8¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$111.11	44% 1092-1396 (2488)
II iii252CTR	Nemigaavg 40.5¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$344.04	57% 1137-870 (2007)
AA aaaa298CTR	Nemigaavg 38.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$106.02	59% 785-551 (1336)
PN pnhctCTR	Nemigaavg 45.2¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$38.8	53% 511-445 (956)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	FURIAavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$100	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
DE delacsynzy1	FURIAavg 59¢	$1,000	$991.53	-$8.47	51% 459-438 (897)
VeryLucky888	FURIAavg 61.5¢	$929.57	$816.47	-$113.1	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
forsenxd	FURIAavg 57¢	$741.11	$702.1	-$19.5	53% 1069-935 (2004)
BA BAPEHUK	FURIAavg 56¢	$559.99	$527.37	-$19.53	49% 413-424 (837)
LO lonmi2511	FURIAavg 56¢	$342.46	$330.23	-$12.23	62% 1149-697 (1846)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Nemigaavg 44.7¢	$311.31	$320.07	+$8.76	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
SP sportteryqqCTR	Nemigaavg 42¢	$110	$108.69	-$1.31	39% 419-642 (1061)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha<$100	FURIAavg 55¢	$93.85	$92.14	-$1.71	52% 77-71 (148)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Nemigaavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.6	+$0.1	51% 1445-1388 (2833)

lllllllIlll

FURIA

Invested

$16,880.88

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$145.52

Record

54%

302-256 (558)

RN1CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$9,874.09

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$469.63

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

Ivan948CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$400

Record

44%

71-91 (162)

a8999

FURIA

Invested

$3,411.1

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$111.11

Record

44%

1092-1396 (2488)

iii252CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,555.31

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$344.04

Record

57%

1137-870 (2007)

aaaa298CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,311.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$106.02

Record

59%

785-551 (1336)

pnhctCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,187.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$38.8

Record

53%

511-445 (956)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

FURIA

Invested

$1,220

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

delacsynzy1

FURIA

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991.53

PnL

-$8.47

Record

51%

459-438 (897)

VeryLucky888

FURIA

Invested

$929.57

Value

$816.47

PnL

-$113.1

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

forsenxd

FURIA

Invested

$741.11

Value

$702.1

PnL

-$19.5

Record

53%

1069-935 (2004)

BAPEHUK

FURIA

Invested

$559.99

Value

$527.37

PnL

-$19.53

Record

49%

413-424 (837)

lonmi2511

FURIA

Invested

$342.46

Value

$330.23

PnL

-$12.23

Record

62%

1149-697 (1846)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$311.31

Value

$320.07

PnL

+$8.76

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

sportteryqqCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$110

Value

$108.69

PnL

-$1.31

Record

39%

419-642 (1061)

AnibalAugustoSardinha<$100

FURIA

Invested

$93.85

Value

$92.14

PnL

-$1.71

Record

52%

77-71 (148)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.