Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA (BO5) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (71%) · FURIA at 72¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
7
FURIA 71%
$19.5K
-$221.1
70.8¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 itwasawholething | FURIAavg 71¢ | $7.8K | $7.9K | +$55 | 59% 55-38 (93) |
TR TrippleEX | FURIAavg 71¢ | $7.1K | $6.7K | -$350 | 58% 296-215 (511) |
WI Wiretransferxyz | FURIAavg 70¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$23.86 | 53% 753-665 (1418) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Nemigaavg 31¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$49.67 | 56% 102-81 (183) |
MA manoamano | FURIAavg 71¢ | $197.4 | $196.01 | -$1.39 | 51% 468-451 (919) |
38 38791873984189 | FURIAavg 71¢ | $190.99 | $192.33 | +$1.34 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Nemigaavg 31¢ | $8.5 | $8.91 | +$0.41 | 49% 19022-19422 (38444) |
itwasawholethingInvested
$7,810
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$55
Record
59%
55-38 (93)
Invested
$7,099.98
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$350
Record
58%
296-215 (511)
Invested
$3,340.28
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$23.86
Record
53%
753-665 (1418)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$1,026.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$49.67
Record
56%
102-81 (183)
Invested
$197.4
Value
$196.01
PnL
-$1.39
Record
51%
468-451 (919)
Invested
$190.99
Value
$192.33
PnL
+$1.34
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.91
PnL
+$0.41
Record
49%
19022-19422 (38444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.