Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (88%) · Nemiga at 62¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Nemiga
8
Nemiga 88%
$13.5K
-$457.97
34.4¢ → 62¢
+80% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNemiga at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGII | Nemigaavg 34¢ | $8.1K | $8.0K | -$119.12 | 41% 378-548 (926) |
 JohnLKellyJr | Nemigaavg 34¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$50 | 53% 1180-1053 (2233) |
 Satanishippie | Nemigaavg 40¢ | $1.0K | $812.5 | -$187.5 | 48% 292-316 (608) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | Nemigaavg 34¢ | $510 | $502.5 | -$7.5 | 33% 5817-11672 (17489) |
 relativesignificance | Nemigaavg 33¢ | $309.73 | $314.42 | +$4.69 | 58% 84-61 (145) |
 RN1CTR | DENDELE CSavg 50.8¢ | $397.8 | $303.4 | -$94.41 | 54% 55310-47345 (102655) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Nemigaavg 34¢ | $278.93 | $274.82 | -$4.1 | 55% 120-99 (219) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Nemigaavg 34¢ | $2.69 | $2.65 | -$0.04 | 49% 18384-18810 (37194) |
CORGIIInvested
$8,100
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$119.12
Record
41%
378-548 (926)
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$3,400
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$50
Record
53%
1180-1053 (2233)
SatanishippieInvested
$1,000
Value
$812.5
PnL
-$187.5
Record
48%
292-316 (608)
Invested
$510
Value
$502.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
33%
5817-11672 (17489)
relativesignificanceInvested
$309.73
Value
$314.42
PnL
+$4.69
Record
58%
84-61 (145)
RN1CTRInvested
$397.8
Value
$303.4
PnL
-$94.41
Record
54%
55310-47345 (102655)
Invested
$278.93
Value
$274.82
PnL
-$4.1
Record
55%
120-99 (219)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
18384-18810 (37194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.