Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (82%) · Nemiga at 90¢ · $39K held · ends Oct 27

Nemiga90¢DENDELE CS10¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 82%

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 89.5¢

+30% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga90%

DENDELE CS11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga14 traders

Total Value$35.0K

Total Shares46,746

Combined PnL+$275.97

DENDELE CS3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares18,570

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Nemiga — 82%DENDELE CS — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on DENDELE CS) and the top 1000 (6 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleDENDELE CS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDENDELE CS 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDENDELE CS 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JE jessy2	Nemigaavg 61.6¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	-$21.11	53% 87-77 (164)
RE redvinny	Nemigaavg 83.4¢	$8.4K	$6.6K	+$103.39	75% 1455-486 (1941)
PN pnhct	Nemigaavg 75.7¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$182.71	54% 433-372 (805)
RN1	Nemigaavg 71.3¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$252.61	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
forsenxdCTR	DENDELE CSavg 38¢	$7.5K	$2.9K	+$37.5	54% 1031-892 (1923)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Nemigaavg 62¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$19.51	51% 57-55 (112)
0xHunterOk	Nemigaavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$34.5	54% 238-204 (442)
AA aaaa298CTR	DENDELE CSavg 32.6¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	$-2.1K	58% 722-519 (1241)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825	Nemigaavg 63¢	$1.0K	$998.93	-$24.36	44% 59-75 (134)
RR rrooster	Nemigaavg 87¢	$870	$875	+$5	63% 1312-781 (2093)
cs2.quant	Nemigaavg 73.9¢	$1,000	$832.73	-$167.27	55% 67-54 (121)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Nemigaavg 64.3¢	$737.24	$704.72	-$32.52	57% 76-57 (133)
BI BillBenter2026	Nemigaavg 73.7¢	$596.35	$651.25	+$54.9	58% 18292-13443 (31735)
latvian.demon	Nemigaavg 78¢	$445.38	$433.96	-$11.42	54% 613-525 (1138)
GT gt7238CTR	DENDELE CSavg 38¢	$279.3	$282.98	+$3.68	45% 579-703 (1282)
CH chillhouse123	Nemigaavg 70.4¢	$233.57	$220.9	-$12.67	52% 3661-3319 (6980)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Nemigaavg 57¢	$16.34	$17.49	+$0.72	53% 5466-4812 (10278)

jessy2

Nemiga

Invested

$10,624.52

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$21.11

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

redvinny

Nemiga

Invested

$8,447.43

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$103.39

Record

75%

1455-486 (1941)

pnhct

Nemiga

Invested

$4,696.9

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$182.71

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

RN1

Nemiga

Invested

$4,076.38

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$252.61

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

forsenxdCTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$7,500.78

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$37.5

Record

54%

1031-892 (1923)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Nemiga

Invested

$2,419.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$19.51

Record

51%

57-55 (112)

0xHunterOk

Nemiga

Invested

$1,449

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$34.5

Record

54%

238-204 (442)

aaaa298CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$3,367.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

58%

722-519 (1241)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

Nemiga

Invested

$1,023.29

Value

$998.93

PnL

-$24.36

Record

44%

59-75 (134)

rrooster

Nemiga

Invested

$870

Value

$875

PnL

+$5

Record

63%

1312-781 (2093)

cs2.quant

Nemiga

Invested

$1,000

Value

$832.73

PnL

-$167.27

Record

55%

67-54 (121)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Nemiga

Invested

$737.24

Value

$704.72

PnL

-$32.52

Record

57%

76-57 (133)

BillBenter2026

Nemiga

Invested

$596.35

Value

$651.25

PnL

+$54.9

Record

58%

18292-13443 (31735)

latvian.demon

Nemiga

Invested

$445.38

Value

$433.96

PnL

-$11.42

Record

54%

613-525 (1138)

gt7238CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$279.3

Value

$282.98

PnL

+$3.68

Record

45%

579-703 (1282)

chillhouse123

Nemiga

Invested

$233.57

Value

$220.9

PnL

-$12.67

Record

52%

3661-3319 (6980)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$16.34

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on DENDELE CS) and the top 1000 (6 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleDENDELE CS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDENDELE CS 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDENDELE CS 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.