Games Total: O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$3.5K
-$147.9
63.7¢ → 75¢
+18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 64.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$91.46 | 53% 4542-3955 (8497) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 62.7¢ | $1.9K | $397.52 | -$39.89 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
 RN1 | Underavg 62.2¢ | $273.94 | $257.58 | -$16.37 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 62.8¢ | $29.64 | $29.27 | -$0.37 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $14.36 | $14.31 | -$0.05 | 60% 9362-6344 (15706) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $13.71 | $12.93 | -$0.78 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $2.5 | $3.51 | +$1.02 | 47% 2405-2688 (5093) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,836.12
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$91.46
Record
53%
4542-3955 (8497)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,907.24
Value
$397.52
PnL
-$39.89
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
RN1Invested
$273.94
Value
$257.58
PnL
-$16.37
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$29.27
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
poshposh<$100Invested
$14.36
Value
$14.31
PnL
-$0.05
Record
60%
9362-6344 (15706)
Invested
$13.71
Value
$12.93
PnL
-$0.78
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$1.02
Record
47%
2405-2688 (5093)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.