Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (50%) · Eternal Fire at 66¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Eternal Fire
6
Eternal Fire 50%
$10.4K
$225.17
66.4¢ → 66¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEternal Fire at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JE jessy2 | Eternal Fireavg 66¢ | $6.1K | $6.3K | +$184.37 | 54% 92-79 (171) |
RA Rayaya | Eternal Fireavg 67¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$40 | 60% 1160-759 (1919) |
 hasobidale | Eternal Fireavg 67.5¢ | $703.48 | $708.28 | +$4.8 | 67% 208-103 (311) |
EG EgorkasxxCTR | Team Nemesisavg 32¢ | $532.88 | $532.88 | +$0 | 49% 48-50 (98) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Team Nemesisavg 33¢ | $132 | $128 | -$4 | 58% 40596-29352 (69948) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Team Nemesisavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.6 | +$0 | 47% 2385-2661 (5046) |
Invested
$6,078.68
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$184.37
Record
54%
92-79 (171)
Invested
$2,679.99
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$40
Record
60%
1160-759 (1919)
hasobidaleInvested
$703.48
Value
$708.28
PnL
+$4.8
Record
67%
208-103 (311)
Invested
$532.88
Value
$532.88
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
48-50 (98)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$132
Value
$128
PnL
-$4
Record
58%
40596-29352 (69948)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2385-2661 (5046)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.