Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (89%) · Eternal Fire at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Eternal Fire
9
Eternal Fire 89%
$6.2K
-$33.18
74.4¢ → 76.5¢
+3% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralEternal Fire at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Eternal Fireavg 75¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$18.33 | 55% 287-235 (522) |
BI BillBenter2026 | Eternal Fireavg 72.8¢ | $840.78 | $837.38 | -$3.4 | 58% 18397-13498 (31895) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Eternal Fireavg 74.5¢ | $706.53 | $701.8 | -$4.74 | 52% 13552-12399 (25951) |
 RN1 | Eternal Fireavg 74¢ | $546.58 | $550.27 | +$3.69 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
II iii252 | Eternal Fireavg 74¢ | $504.1 | $507.5 | +$3.41 | 56% 1093-846 (1939) |
 VeryLucky888 | Eternal Fireavg 74.4¢ | $366.08 | $362.28 | +$4.98 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
PN pnhct | Eternal Fireavg 74¢ | $297.29 | $299.43 | +$2.11 | 54% 451-390 (841) |
AA aaaa298CTR | Team Nemesisavg 27.2¢ | $226.95 | $204.69 | -$22.26 | 58% 745-532 (1277) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 72¢ | $28.08 | $29.45 | +$1.37 | 68% 1652-761 (2413) |
Invested
$2,749.67
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$18.33
Record
55%
287-235 (522)
Invested
$840.78
Value
$837.38
PnL
-$3.4
Record
58%
18397-13498 (31895)
Invested
$706.53
Value
$701.8
PnL
-$4.74
Record
52%
13552-12399 (25951)
RN1Invested
$546.58
Value
$550.27
PnL
+$3.69
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$504.1
Value
$507.5
PnL
+$3.41
Record
56%
1093-846 (1939)
VeryLucky888Invested
$366.08
Value
$362.28
PnL
+$4.98
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$297.29
Value
$299.43
PnL
+$2.11
Record
54%
451-390 (841)
Invested
$226.95
Value
$204.69
PnL
-$22.26
Record
58%
745-532 (1277)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$28.08
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$1.37
Record
68%
1652-761 (2413)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
lllllllIlll
Eternal Fire — $2.7K
BillBenter2026
Eternal Fire — $837.38
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Eternal Fire — $701.8
RN1
Eternal Fire — $550.27
iii252
Eternal Fire — $507.5
VeryLucky888
Eternal Fire — $362.28
pnhct
Eternal Fire — $299.43
aaaa298
CTRTeam Nemesis — $204.69
Basquetipster
Eternal Fire — $29.45