Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (80%) · Eternal Fire at 74¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Eternal Fire
5
Eternal Fire 80%
$7.2K
-$149.17
74.2¢ → 73.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEternal Fire at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 forsenxd | Eternal Fireavg 74¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$170.05 | 54% 1041-903 (1944) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Team Nemesisavg 26¢ | $2.7K | $2.3K | -$305.97 | 50% 1224-1217 (2441) |
 VeryLucky888 | Eternal Fireavg 75.9¢ | $554.03 | $445.95 | -$13.92 | 58% 40750-29469 (70219) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 77.9¢ | $77.9 | $77 | -$0.9 | 68% 1652-761 (2413) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 74.7¢ | $51.67 | $53.25 | +$1.58 | 49% 18595-19018 (37613) |
forsenxdInvested
$4,151.86
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$170.05
Record
54%
1041-903 (1944)
Invested
$2,651.76
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$305.97
Record
50%
1224-1217 (2441)
VeryLucky888Invested
$554.03
Value
$445.95
PnL
-$13.92
Record
58%
40750-29469 (70219)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$77.9
Value
$77
PnL
-$0.9
Record
68%
1652-761 (2413)
Invested
$51.67
Value
$53.25
PnL
+$1.58
Record
49%
18595-19018 (37613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.