Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (63%) · Eternal Fire at 83¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 28

Team Nemesis17¢Eternal Fire83¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 63%

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$488.7

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 83¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Nemesis17%

Eternal Fire83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire5 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares25,239

Combined PnL+$464.86

Team Nemesis3 traders

Total Value$288.86

Total Shares1,682

Combined PnL+$23.84

Eternal Fire — 63%Team Nemesis — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEternal Fire 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxd	Eternal Fireavg 82¢	$9.9K	$10.3K	+$363.06	54% 1041-903 (1944)
DumplingBMF	Eternal Fireavg 84.1¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$60	68% 1799-838 (2637)
VeryLucky888	Eternal Fireavg 83.8¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$20.17	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
StudyPrediction	Eternal Fireavg 82¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$61.97	53% 4539-3954 (8493)
VI vibing123CTR	Team Nemesisavg 16¢	$244	$266.88	+$22.88	52% 1541-1425 (2966)
Basquetipster<$100	Eternal Fireavg 85¢	$38.59	$38.59	-$0	68% 1652-761 (2413)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Team Nemesisavg 15¢	$12.58	$13.55	+$0.97	53% 3017-2681 (5698)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Team Nemesisavg 14¢	$8.43	$8.43	+$0	47% 2403-2685 (5088)

forsenxd

Eternal Fire

Invested

$9,923.57

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$363.06

Record

54%

1041-903 (1944)

DumplingBMF

Eternal Fire

Invested

$5,890

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$60

Record

68%

1799-838 (2637)

VeryLucky888

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,225.9

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$20.17

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

StudyPrediction

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,679.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$61.97

Record

53%

4539-3954 (8493)

vibing123CTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$244

Value

$266.88

PnL

+$22.88

Record

52%

1541-1425 (2966)

Basquetipster<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$38.59

Value

$38.59

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

1652-761 (2413)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Team Nemesis

Invested

$12.58

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

3017-2681 (5698)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Team Nemesis

Invested

$8.43

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2403-2685 (5088)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEternal Fire 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpEternal Fire 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEternal Fire 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Eternal Fire 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.