Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Brute - Map 2 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Brute (67%) · Brute at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Team Nemesis<1¢Brute>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Brute

Consensus Traders

Brute 67%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$311.83

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrute at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brute

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Nemesis0%

Brute100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brute4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,364

Combined PnL+$277.45

Team Nemesis2 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$589.27

Brute — 67%Team Nemesis — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Brute. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrute 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrBrute 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Brute 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Bruteavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 10381-47 (10428)
AS astapzippo	Bruteavg 66¢	$400.95	$606.89	+$205.94	56% 2100-1638 (3738)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Bruteavg 58.2¢	$139.58	$199.05	+$59.47	54% 1024-865 (1889)
poshposh<$100	Bruteavg 61.1¢	$46.13	$62.96	+$10.78	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
PN pnhctCTR	Team Nemesisavg 36¢	$153.77	$0.36	-$153.42	54% 433-372 (805)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Team Nemesisavg 69.4¢	$436.17	$0.31	-$435.86	55% 120-99 (219)

looppau

Brute

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

10381-47 (10428)

astapzippo

Brute

Invested

$400.95

Value

$606.89

PnL

+$205.94

Record

56%

2100-1638 (3738)

TommyLeePeeca

Brute

Invested

$139.58

Value

$199.05

PnL

+$59.47

Record

54%

1024-865 (1889)

poshposh<$100

Brute

Invested

$46.13

Value

$62.96

PnL

+$10.78

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

pnhctCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$153.77

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$153.42

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$436.17

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$435.86

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

Research grade

NeutralBrute at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Brute

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Brute. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrute 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrBrute 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Brute 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brute wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.