Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Nemesis, while the market favors Brute (56%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Brute (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Nemesis (50%) · Team Nemesis at 45¢ · $37K held · ends Oct 27

Team Nemesis45¢Brute55¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Nemesis

Consensus Traders

Team Nemesis 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$8.2K

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 44.5¢

-39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Nemesis at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Nemesis

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Nemesis45%

Brute56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brute4 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares37,841

Combined PnL+$8.5K

Team Nemesis4 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares22,551

Combined PnL-$250.97

Brute — 50%Team Nemesis — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Bruteavg 28.8¢	$9.3K	$17.6K	+$8.4K	55% 277-228 (505)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Team Nemesisavg 73.6¢	$8.6K	$8.4K	-$131.95	55% 120-99 (219)
12 123zxcCTR	Team Nemesisavg 73.8¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$124.76	34% 14-27 (41)
FO forget4	Bruteavg 27¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$30	43% 674-881 (1555)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Nemesisavg 52.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$185.12	54% 433-372 (805)
└ Brute leg	Bruteavg 32.8¢	$457.12	$773.27	+$316.15
└ Team Nemesis leg	Team Nemesisavg 52.5¢	$857.09	$726.06	-$131.03
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	Team Nemesisavg 72.5¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$6.83	52% 607-562 (1169)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bruteavg 52.7¢	$309.1	$297.76	-$11.35	52% 13465-12317 (25782)
└ Brute leg	Bruteavg 52.7¢	$158.44	$166.84	+$8.4
└ Team Nemesis leg	Team Nemesisavg 51.2¢	$150.67	$130.92	-$19.75
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Nemesisavg 49.5¢	$108.06	$106.98	-$1.08	49% 18383-18810 (37193)
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	Bruteavg 27.3¢	$82	$55	+$23	54% 1024-865 (1889)
SE sentrio<$100	Bruteavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.73	+$0.02	50% 24824-24517 (49341)

lllllllIlll

Brute

Invested

$9,290.27

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

55%

277-228 (505)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$8,553.21

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$131.95

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

123zxcCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$6,895

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$124.76

Record

34%

14-27 (41)

forget4

Brute

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30

Record

43%

674-881 (1555)

pnhctARB<$100

Team Nemesis

Invested

$1,314.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$185.12

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

Both legs:

Brute$457.1232.8¢+$316.15

Team Nemesis$857.0952.5¢-$131.03

nobody2somebodyCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.83

Record

52%

607-562 (1169)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Brute

Invested

$309.1

Value

$297.76

PnL

-$11.35

Record

52%

13465-12317 (25782)

Both legs:

Brute$158.4452.7¢+$8.4

Team Nemesis$150.6751.2¢-$19.75

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$108.06

Value

$106.98

PnL

-$1.08

Record

49%

18383-18810 (37193)

TommyLeePeeca<$100

Brute

Invested

$82

Value

$55

PnL

+$23

Record

54%

1024-865 (1889)

sentrio<$100

Brute

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

24824-24517 (49341)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Nemesis at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Nemesis

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Nemesis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.