Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ NXT, while the market favors NAVI Junior (85%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 Winner

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ NXT (44%) · MOUZ NXT at 15¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

NAVI Junior85¢MOUZ NXT15¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

MOUZ NXT

Consensus Traders

MOUZ NXT 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 15¢

-75% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMOUZ NXT at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors NAVI Junior 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

NAVI Junior85%

MOUZ NXT15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ NXT7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares19,446

Combined PnL$-7.3K

NAVI Junior9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,182

Combined PnL+$1.5K

MOUZ NXT — 44%NAVI Junior — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ NXT. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on NAVI Junior) and the top 1000 (3 on MOUZ NXT) disagree here.

sharpNAVI Junior 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMOUZ NXT 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNAVI Junior 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ NXT 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 74.1¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$583.71	25% 174-517 (691)
└ NAVI Junior leg	NAVI Junioravg 28¢	$1.2K	$2.5K	+$1.3K
└ MOUZ NXT leg	MOUZ NXTavg 74.1¢	$1.6K	$884.94	-$754.41
JohnLKellyJrCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 61.4¢	$9.9K	$2.2K	$-7.7K	60% 12-8 (20)
lma0o0o0oCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 53.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$32.07	49% 22-23 (45)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 63.8¢	$482.48	$754.43	+$271.94	51% 2043-1952 (3995)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	NAVI Junioravg 27.2¢	$223.08	$708.13	+$485.05	48% 31-34 (65)
31 319113331313111	NAVI Junioravg 36.8¢	$3.9K	$632.01	+$52.38	57% 102-76 (178)
VeryLucky888CTR	MOUZ NXTavg 44.7¢	$227.02	$279.4	+$52.38	52% 737-689 (1426)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 50¢	$262.5	$259.88	-$2.62	54% 417-355 (772)
└ MOUZ NXT leg	MOUZ NXTavg 50¢	$131.25	$144.38	+$13.13
└ NAVI Junior leg	NAVI Junioravg 50¢	$131.25	$115.5	-$15.75
PA panpidaras1	NAVI Junioravg 50¢	$100	$169	+$69	9% 26-272 (298)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 69¢	$2.6K	$145.35	-$2.01	62% 87-53 (140)
poshposh	NAVI Junioravg 33.4¢	$77.81	$139.82	+$62.01	47% 507-571 (1078)
Future-Tarot-Trader	NAVI Junioravg 27.3¢	$980.96	$126.82	+$869.38	48% 79-86 (165)
SU suntori	NAVI Junioravg 75¢	$103.79	$99.46	-$3.59	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	NAVI Junioravg 30.3¢	$69.63	$98.89	+$29.26	37% 524-893 (1417)
GT gt7238<$100	NAVI Junioravg 18¢	$97.2	$62.1	-$35.1	4% 21-461 (482)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	NAVI Junioravg 29.9¢	$48.14	$52.41	+$4.27	32% 284-608 (892)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 82.7¢	$29.22	$20.78	-$8.44	44% 372-473 (845)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 74¢	$7.4	$7.4	+$0	42% 30-41 (71)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$2,811.93

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$583.71

Record

25%

174-517 (691)

Both legs:

NAVI Junior$1,172.5828¢+$1.3K

MOUZ NXT$1,639.3574.1¢-$754.41

JohnLKellyJrCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$9,851.11

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

lma0o0o0oCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$1,215.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$32.07

Record

49%

22-23 (45)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$482.48

Value

$754.43

PnL

+$271.94

Record

51%

2043-1952 (3995)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

NAVI Junior

Invested

$223.08

Value

$708.13

PnL

+$485.05

Record

48%

31-34 (65)

319113331313111

NAVI Junior

Invested

$3,863.87

Value

$632.01

PnL

+$52.38

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

VeryLucky888CTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$227.02

Value

$279.4

PnL

+$52.38

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

NotJumpARB<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$262.5

Value

$259.88

PnL

-$2.62

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

MOUZ NXT$131.2550¢+$13.13

NAVI Junior$131.2550¢-$15.75

panpidaras1

NAVI Junior

Invested

$100

Value

$169

PnL

+$69

Record

26-272 (298)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$2,631.1

Value

$145.35

PnL

-$2.01

Record

62%

87-53 (140)

poshposh

NAVI Junior

Invested

$77.81

Value

$139.82

PnL

+$62.01

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

Future-Tarot-Trader

NAVI Junior

Invested

$980.96

Value

$126.82

PnL

+$869.38

Record

48%

79-86 (165)

suntori

NAVI Junior

Invested

$103.79

Value

$99.46

PnL

-$3.59

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

topdogbigboi<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$69.63

Value

$98.89

PnL

+$29.26

Record

37%

524-893 (1417)

gt7238<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$97.2

Value

$62.1

PnL

-$35.1

Record

21-461 (482)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$48.14

Value

$52.41

PnL

+$4.27

Record

32%

284-608 (892)

lryyyCTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$29.22

Value

$20.78

PnL

-$8.44

Record

44%

372-473 (845)

ccllarCTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

30-41 (71)

Research grade

AvoidMOUZ NXT at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors NAVI Junior 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ NXT. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on NAVI Junior) and the top 1000 (3 on MOUZ NXT) disagree here.

sharpNAVI Junior 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMOUZ NXT 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNAVI Junior 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ NXT 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ NXT wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.