Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ NXT (58%) · MOUZ NXT at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

NAVI Junior<1¢MOUZ NXT>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ NXT

Consensus Traders

MOUZ NXT 58%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ NXT at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

NAVI Junior0%

MOUZ NXT100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ NXT7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares11,181

Combined PnL+$3.8K

NAVI Junior5 traders

Total Value$592.36

Total Shares4,073

Combined PnL$-1.4K

MOUZ NXT — 58%NAVI Junior — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ NXT. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on NAVI Junior) and the top 1000 (11 on MOUZ NXT) disagree here.

sharpNAVI Junior 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMOUZ NXT 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNAVI Junior 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ NXT 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	MOUZ NXTavg 64¢	$5.6K	$8.8K	+$3.2K	60% 12-8 (20)
31 319113331313111	MOUZ NXTavg 67.1¢	$1.7K	$690.66	-$22.12	57% 102-76 (178)
JO johnsonboyy	MOUZ NXTavg 36¢	$239.4	$664.33	+$424.93	— 6-9 (15)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	NAVI Junioravg 41.8¢	$1.5K	$584.73	-$877.99	25% 174-517 (691)
VeryLucky888	MOUZ NXTavg 36.7¢	$297.26	$521.54	+$224.27	52% 737-689 (1426)
NO NotJump	MOUZ NXTavg 50¢	$262.5	$264.86	+$2.36	54% 417-355 (772)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	MOUZ NXTavg 66.2¢	$1.0K	$247.11	+$55.05	62% 87-53 (140)
Future-Tarot-Trader	MOUZ NXTavg 70.3¢	$320.79	$11.43	-$2.9	48% 79-86 (165)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	NAVI Junioravg 43.4¢	$31.04	$5.61	-$25.43	60% 667-444 (1111)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	NAVI Junioravg 40.9¢	$55.88	$1.37	-$54.51	51% 2043-1952 (3995)
PA panpidaras1CTR	NAVI Junioravg 34¢	$300	$0.44	-$299.56	9% 26-272 (298)
CC ccllarCTR	NAVI Junioravg 33¢	$132	$0.2	-$131.8	42% 30-41 (71)

JohnLKellyJr

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$5,616.37

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

319113331313111

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$1,727.21

Value

$690.66

PnL

-$22.12

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

johnsonboyy

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$239.4

Value

$664.33

PnL

+$424.93

Record

—

6-9 (15)

BillBenter2026CTR

NAVI Junior

Invested

$1,465.11

Value

$584.73

PnL

-$877.99

Record

25%

174-517 (691)

VeryLucky888

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$297.26

Value

$521.54

PnL

+$224.27

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

NotJump

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$262.5

Value

$264.86

PnL

+$2.36

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$1,017.33

Value

$247.11

PnL

+$55.05

Record

62%

87-53 (140)

Future-Tarot-Trader

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$320.79

Value

$11.43

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

79-86 (165)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$31.04

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$25.43

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$55.88

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$54.51

Record

51%

2043-1952 (3995)

panpidaras1CTR

NAVI Junior

Invested

$300

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$299.56

Record

26-272 (298)

ccllarCTR

NAVI Junior

Invested

$132

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$131.8

Record

42%

30-41 (71)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ NXT at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ NXT. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on NAVI Junior) and the top 1000 (11 on MOUZ NXT) disagree here.

sharpNAVI Junior 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMOUZ NXT 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNAVI Junior 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ NXT 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ NXT wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.