Games Total: O/U 2.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Over70¢Under30¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$734.92

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 69.5¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,179

Combined PnL+$735.47

Under4 traders

Total Value$642.06

Total Shares1,442

Combined PnL-$0.55

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 47.6¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$706.25	51% 1851-1781 (3632)
forsenxdCTR	Underavg 49.7¢	$433.52	$453.5	+$19.21	53% 1079-944 (2023)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$416.47	$451.17	+$12.2	53% 5749-5085 (10834)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$188.97	$226.17	+$14.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$260	$225	-$2.5
NO NotJumpCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$112.94	$101.25	-$11.69	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$67.67	$58.86	-$9.02	62% 1227-749 (1976)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$44.19	$56.66	+$12.47	58% 11432-8282 (19714)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 63.1¢	$67.2	$52.36	+$10.16	52% 7639-6913 (14552)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$47.61	$51.78	+$4.17	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$27.5	$28.44	+$0.95	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 58.7¢	$7.37	$9.79	+$2.42	46% 7932-9255 (17187)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$2,337.57

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$706.25

Record

51%

1851-1781 (3632)

forsenxdCTR

Under

Invested

$433.52

Value

$453.5

PnL

+$19.21

Record

53%

1079-944 (2023)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$416.47

Value

$451.17

PnL

+$12.2

Record

53%

5749-5085 (10834)

Both legs:

Invested

$112.94

Value

$101.25

PnL

-$11.69

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.67

Value

$58.86

PnL

-$9.02

Record

62%

1227-749 (1976)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$44.19

Value

$56.66

PnL

+$12.47

Record

58%

11432-8282 (19714)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$67.2

Value

$52.36

PnL

+$10.16

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$47.61

Value

$51.78

PnL

+$4.17

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.5

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$7.37

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$2.42

Record

46%

7932-9255 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.