Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Natus Vincere, while the market favors Team Falcons (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (60%) · Natus Vincere at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Natus Vincere
5
Natus Vincere 60%
$5.7K
$158.69
43.5¢ → 44.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNatus Vincere at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Falcons 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR | Natus Vincereavg 44¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$24.43 | 54% 320-276 (596) |
 relativesignificance | Team Falconsavg 57.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$206.38 | 56% 109-84 (193) |
 hasobidale | Team Falconsavg 56¢ | $800.8 | $936.65 | +$135.85 | 66% 224-116 (340) |
VI vibing123CTR | Natus Vincereavg 42.5¢ | $1.1K | $890.66 | -$207.5 | 52% 1572-1455 (3027) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 43¢ | $2.37 | $1.9 | -$0.47 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
Invested
$2,149.7
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$24.43
Record
54%
320-276 (596)
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,470.28
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$206.38
Record
56%
109-84 (193)
hasobidaleInvested
$800.8
Value
$936.65
PnL
+$135.85
Record
66%
224-116 (340)
Invested
$1,098.17
Value
$890.66
PnL
-$207.5
Record
52%
1572-1455 (3027)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.47
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.