Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs naocopulas (+1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold paiN (63%) · paiN at 52¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 31

paiN52¢naocopulas48¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

paiN

Consensus Traders

paiN 63%

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

-$167.1

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 51.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralpaiN at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

paiN52%

naocopulas49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

naocopulas3 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares19,940

Combined PnL+$159.36

paiN5 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares19,437

Combined PnL-$326.46

naocopulas — 38%paiN — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpnaocopulas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrpaiN 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedpaiN 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000paiN 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	naocopulasavg 47.7¢	$9.2K	$9.4K	+$163.37	53% 755-669 (1424)
JohnLKellyJr	paiNavg 54.1¢	$6.5K	$6.1K	-$312.24	52% 1243-1129 (2372)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	paiNavg 52¢	$6.0K	$3.1K	-$30	53% 101-90 (191)
VeryLucky888	paiNavg 51.5¢	$591.44	$385.78	+$12.31	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	paiNavg 51¢	$343.33	$346.69	+$3.37	51% 346-337 (683)
MA manoamanoCTR	naocopulasavg 49.2¢	$244	$240.54	-$3.46	51% 476-458 (934)
28 2829CTR<$100	naocopulasavg 49¢	$53.9	$53.35	-$0.55	46% 415-491 (906)
RL RLWG<$100	paiNavg 50¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.1	50% 7896-7923 (15819)

WiretransferxyzCTR

naocopulas

Invested

$9,213.6

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$163.37

Record

53%

755-669 (1424)

JohnLKellyJr

paiN

Invested

$6,492.51

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$312.24

Record

52%

1243-1129 (2372)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

paiN

Invested

$6,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

101-90 (191)

VeryLucky888

paiN

Invested

$591.44

Value

$385.78

PnL

+$12.31

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

paiN

Invested

$343.33

Value

$346.69

PnL

+$3.37

Record

51%

346-337 (683)

manoamanoCTR

naocopulas

Invested

$244

Value

$240.54

PnL

-$3.46

Record

51%

476-458 (934)

2829CTR<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$53.9

Value

$53.35

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

415-491 (906)

RLWG<$100

paiN

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

7896-7923 (15819)

Research grade

NeutralpaiN at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

paiN

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpnaocopulas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrpaiN 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedpaiN 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000paiN 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that paiN wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.