Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold paiN, while the market favors naocopulas (91%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs paiN (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group B

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold paiN (44%) · paiN at 9.5¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 31

naocopulas91¢paiN9¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

paiN

Consensus Traders

paiN 44%

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 9.5¢

-85% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidpaiN at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors naocopulas 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

naocopulas91%

paiN10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

paiN7 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares23,726

Combined PnL$-1.6K

naocopulas9 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares33,377

Combined PnL$-6.8K

paiN — 44%naocopulas — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrnaocopulas 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000naocopulas 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	paiNavg 64.3¢	$11.9K	$9.4K	$-2.6K	52% 1247-1129 (2376)
WI Wiretransferxyz	naocopulasavg 41.3¢	$11.8K	$4.9K	$-7.0K	53% 755-670 (1425)
dicekingCTR	paiNavg 54¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$724.96	58% 323-236 (559)
TO topdogbigboi	naocopulasavg 40.8¢	$506.55	$1.0K	+$507.4	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	naocopulasavg 50.3¢	$871.64	$904.51	+$32.87	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
latvian.demonCTR	paiNavg 52.9¢	$396.45	$622.5	+$226.05	54% 702-589 (1291)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	paiNavg 61.4¢	$579.41	$599.04	+$19.63	53% 101-90 (191)
AN anyjezzCTR	paiNavg 55¢	$506.39	$529.41	+$23.02	49% 534-557 (1091)
0X 0x4f2	naocopulasavg 42.9¢	$292.02	$282.34	-$9.68	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
MA manoamano	naocopulasavg 46¢	$682.22	$252.12	-$430.1	51% 476-459 (935)
poshposh	naocopulasavg 41.9¢	$69.05	$138.9	+$69.85	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
FO fortuneking	naocopulasavg 61¢	$122	$99	-$23	59% 779-543 (1322)
AM ameisgoat11	naocopulasavg 47.5¢	$740.61	$66.29	+$50.69	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	naocopulasavg 39¢	$15.97	$26.41	+$10.44	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	paiNavg 53¢	$10.87	$17.02	+$6.15	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	paiNavg 54¢	$2.7	$4.15	+$1.45	50% 7900-7930 (15830)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

paiN

Invested

$11,944.37

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

52%

1247-1129 (2376)

Wiretransferxyz

naocopulas

Invested

$11,841.06

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

53%

755-670 (1425)

dicekingCTR

paiN

Invested

$1,349.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$724.96

Record

58%

323-236 (559)

topdogbigboi

naocopulas

Invested

$506.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$507.4

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

naocopulas

Invested

$871.64

Value

$904.51

PnL

+$32.87

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

latvian.demonCTR

paiN

Invested

$396.45

Value

$622.5

PnL

+$226.05

Record

54%

702-589 (1291)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

paiN

Invested

$579.41

Value

$599.04

PnL

+$19.63

Record

53%

101-90 (191)

anyjezzCTR

paiN

Invested

$506.39

Value

$529.41

PnL

+$23.02

Record

49%

534-557 (1091)

0x4f2

naocopulas

Invested

$292.02

Value

$282.34

PnL

-$9.68

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

manoamano

naocopulas

Invested

$682.22

Value

$252.12

PnL

-$430.1

Record

51%

476-459 (935)

poshposh

naocopulas

Invested

$69.05

Value

$138.9

PnL

+$69.85

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

fortuneking

naocopulas

Invested

$122

Value

$99

PnL

-$23

Record

59%

779-543 (1322)

ameisgoat11

naocopulas

Invested

$740.61

Value

$66.29

PnL

+$50.69

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$15.97

Value

$26.41

PnL

+$10.44

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

paiN

Invested

$10.87

Value

$17.02

PnL

+$6.15

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

RLWGCTR<$100

paiN

Invested

$2.7

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$1.45

Record

50%

7900-7930 (15830)

Research grade

AvoidpaiN at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors naocopulas 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrnaocopulas 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000naocopulas 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that paiN wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.