Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffs

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (20%) · Low Cortisol at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

naocopulas38¢Low Cortisol62¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Low Cortisol

Consensus Traders

Low Cortisol 20%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$46.58

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

naocopulas38%

Low Cortisol63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Low Cortisol1 trader

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,241

Combined PnL-$170.88

naocopulas4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,242

Combined PnL+$217.46

Low Cortisol — 20%naocopulas — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Low Cortisolavg 67¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$170.88	52% 1259-1144 (2403)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	naocopulasavg 33.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$211.97	53% 760-672 (1432)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	naocopulasavg 33.7¢	$65.25	$71.55	+$7.27	50% 19431-19804 (39235)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	naocopulasavg 38¢	$48.52	$47.24	-$1.28	51% 506-477 (983)
28 2829CTR<$100	naocopulasavg 34¢	$33.66	$36.63	-$0.5	46% 424-495 (919)

JohnLKellyJr

Low Cortisol

Invested

$2,842.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$170.88

Record

52%

1259-1144 (2403)

WiretransferxyzCTR

naocopulas

Invested

$1,971.39

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$211.97

Record

53%

760-672 (1432)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$65.25

Value

$71.55

PnL

+$7.27

Record

50%

19431-19804 (39235)

manoamanoCTR<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$48.52

Value

$47.24

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

506-477 (983)

2829CTR<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$33.66

Value

$36.63

PnL

-$0.5

Record

46%

424-495 (919)

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Low Cortisol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.