Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Metizport, while the market favors WBT Academy (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Metizport vs WBT Academy - Map 1 Winner

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Metizport (33%) · Metizport at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Metizport<1¢WBT Academy>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Metizport

Consensus Traders

Metizport 33%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMetizport at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors WBT Academy 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Metizport0%

WBT Academy100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Metizport3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,290

Combined PnL$-1.3K

WBT Academy6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,974

Combined PnL+$48.43

Metizport — 33%WBT Academy — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Metizportavg 47.6¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	-$987.97	52% 1263-1146 (2409)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	WBT Academyavg 71.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.37	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
0X 0x4f2	WBT Academyavg 73.3¢	$269.59	$281.56	+$11.97	52% 9186-8564 (17750)
46 467j6yj	WBT Academyavg 96.6¢	$244.72	$249.52	+$4.8	97% 3389-119 (3508)
TE testBruno2	WBT Academyavg 72.6¢	$290.7	$147.3	-$11.03	58% 899-648 (1547)
poshposh	WBT Academyavg 73.9¢	$128.36	$142.68	+$14.33	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Metizportavg 41.3¢	$370.31	$85.27	-$285.04	51% 351-343 (694)
LO lonmi2511<$100	WBT Academyavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	62% 1191-725 (1916)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Metizportavg 21.9¢	$48.02	$0.11	-$47.91	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Metizport

Invested

$2,462.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$987.97

Record

52%

1263-1146 (2409)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

WBT Academy

Invested

$1,081.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.37

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

0x4f2

WBT Academy

Invested

$269.59

Value

$281.56

PnL

+$11.97

Record

52%

9186-8564 (17750)

467j6yj

WBT Academy

Invested

$244.72

Value

$249.52

PnL

+$4.8

Record

97%

3389-119 (3508)

testBruno2

WBT Academy

Invested

$290.7

Value

$147.3

PnL

-$11.03

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

poshposh

WBT Academy

Invested

$128.36

Value

$142.68

PnL

+$14.33

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Metizport

Invested

$370.31

Value

$85.27

PnL

-$285.04

Record

51%

351-343 (694)

lonmi2511<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Metizport

Invested

$48.02

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$47.91

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

AvoidMetizport at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors WBT Academy 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Metizport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.