Counter-Strike: Metizport vs SNITKO Esports (BO1) - Circuito Retake Group D

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Metizport (43%) · Metizport at 100¢ · $874 held · ends Oct 30

Metizport>99¢SNITKO Esports<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Metizport

Consensus Traders

Metizport 43%

Total Value

$874.36

Combined PnL

-$187.9

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMetizport at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Metizport100%

SNITKO Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Metizport3 traders

Total Value$764.1

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$28.63

SNITKO Esports4 traders

Total Value$110.25

Total Shares1,167

Combined PnL-$216.53

Metizport — 43%SNITKO Esports — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Metizport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMetizport 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Metizport 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Metizportavg 85.4¢	$331.35	$354.97	+$23.62	53% 2373-2082 (4455)
JohnLKellyJr	Metizportavg 89.3¢	$301.39	$306.96	+$5.57	52% 1228-1123 (2351)
0X 0x4f2CTR	SNITKO Esportsavg 24.4¢	$218.12	$109.92	-$108.2	52% 9141-8537 (17678)
Basquetipster	Metizportavg 88¢	$98.8	$102.17	-$0.56	68% 1663-768 (2431)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	SNITKO Esportsavg 14.5¢	$77.05	$0.26	-$76.78	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
poshposhCTR<$100	SNITKO Esportsavg 21.9¢	$21.95	$0.05	-$21.9	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
US User7429CTR<$100	SNITKO Esportsavg 20.1¢	$9.67	$0.02	-$9.65	55% 8242-6656 (14898)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Metizport

Invested

$331.35

Value

$354.97

PnL

+$23.62

Record

53%

2373-2082 (4455)

JohnLKellyJr

Metizport

Invested

$301.39

Value

$306.96

PnL

+$5.57

Record

52%

1228-1123 (2351)

0x4f2CTR

SNITKO Esports

Invested

$218.12

Value

$109.92

PnL

-$108.2

Record

52%

9141-8537 (17678)

Basquetipster

Metizport

Invested

$98.8

Value

$102.17

PnL

-$0.56

Record

68%

1663-768 (2431)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

SNITKO Esports

Invested

$77.05

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$76.78

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

poshposhCTR<$100

SNITKO Esports

Invested

$21.95

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$21.9

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

User7429CTR<$100

SNITKO Esports

Invested

$9.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.65

Record

55%

8242-6656 (14898)

Research grade

NeutralMetizport at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Metizport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMetizport 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Metizport 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Metizport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.