Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Regnum4Games, while the market favors MTX (59%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: MTX vs Regnum4Games (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Regnum4Games (50%) · Regnum4Games at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

MTX59¢Regnum4Games41¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Regnum4Games

Consensus Traders

Regnum4Games 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$46.52

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 41.5¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRegnum4Games at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Regnum4Games

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MTX 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MTX59%

Regnum4Games42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Regnum4Games3 traders

Total Value$640.91

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$73.14

MTX3 traders

Total Value$92.26

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$119.67

Regnum4Games — 50%MTX — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Regnum4Games. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRegnum4Games 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000MTX 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhARB<$100	MTXavg 62.8¢	$358.9	$328.53	-$30.37	47% 532-590 (1122)
└ MTX leg	MTXavg 62.8¢	$197.37	$176.1	-$21.28
└ Regnum4Games leg	Regnum4Gamesavg 46.6¢	$161.53	$152.44	-$9.09
GA GaditimaCTR	Regnum4Gamesavg 41¢	$244.31	$317.52	+$73.21	46% 161-187 (348)
alpheclabs2CTR	Regnum4Gamesavg 52.1¢	$313.93	$316.58	+$2.64	46% 196-234 (430)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Regnum4Gamesavg 50¢	$262.5	$210	-$52.5	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Regnum4Games leg	Regnum4Gamesavg 50¢	$131.25	$152.25	+$21
└ MTX leg	MTXavg 50¢	$131.25	$57.75	-$73.5
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	MTXavg 33.1¢	$94.85	$129.99	+$35.14	37% 538-932 (1470)
└ MTX leg	MTXavg 33.1¢	$76.5	$97.09	+$20.59
└ Regnum4Games leg	Regnum4Gamesavg 32.3¢	$18.35	$32.9	+$14.55
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	MTXavg 64.7¢	$57.15	$47.26	-$9.89	41% 257-370 (627)
└ MTX leg	MTXavg 64.7¢	$29.1	$25.2	-$3.9
└ Regnum4Games leg	Regnum4Gamesavg 55.9¢	$28.05	$22.06	-$5.99
38 38791873984189	MTXavg 67.8¢	$503.67	$37.47	-$102.68	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
PA Pan9X<$100	MTXavg 63.4¢	$76.62	$33.23	-$12.34	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
LR lryyy<$100	MTXavg 61¢	$26.21	$21.56	-$4.65	44% 389-495 (884)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Regnum4Gamesavg 58¢	$9.52	$6.81	-$2.71	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

poshposhARB<$100

MTX

Invested

$358.9

Value

$328.53

PnL

-$30.37

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Both legs:

MTX$197.3762.8¢-$21.28

Regnum4Games$161.5346.6¢-$9.09

GaditimaCTR

Regnum4Games

Invested

$244.31

Value

$317.52

PnL

+$73.21

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

alpheclabs2CTR

Regnum4Games

Invested

$313.93

Value

$316.58

PnL

+$2.64

Record

46%

196-234 (430)

NotJumpARB<$100

Regnum4Games

Invested

$262.5

Value

$210

PnL

-$52.5

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Regnum4Games$131.2550¢+$21

MTX$131.2550¢-$73.5

topdogbigboiARB<$100

MTX

Invested

$94.85

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$35.14

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

Both legs:

MTX$76.533.1¢+$20.59

Regnum4Games$18.3532.3¢+$14.55

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

MTX

Invested

$57.15

Value

$47.26

PnL

-$9.89

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

Both legs:

MTX$29.164.7¢-$3.9

Regnum4Games$28.0555.9¢-$5.99

38791873984189

MTX

Invested

$503.67

Value

$37.47

PnL

-$102.68

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Pan9X<$100

MTX

Invested

$76.62

Value

$33.23

PnL

-$12.34

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

lryyy<$100

MTX

Invested

$26.21

Value

$21.56

PnL

-$4.65

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

suntoriCTR<$100

Regnum4Games

Invested

$9.52

Value

$6.81

PnL

-$2.71

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

NeutralRegnum4Games at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Regnum4Games

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MTX 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Regnum4Games. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRegnum4Games 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000MTX 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Regnum4Games wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.