Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (42%) · MOUZ at 85¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2

MOUZ85¢TYLOO15¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 42%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$370.87

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 84.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ85%

TYLOO16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ5 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares10,635

Combined PnL+$274.97

TYLOO7 traders

Total Value$498.08

Total Shares2,490

Combined PnL+$95.9

MOUZ — 42%TYLOO — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTYLOO 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000TYLOO 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MOUZavg 75¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$251.11	53% 139-121 (260)
JohnLKellyJr	MOUZavg 82.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$6.04	52% 1278-1163 (2441)
ZZ Zzzz87	MOUZavg 80¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.84	47% 3172-3549 (6721)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	MOUZavg 83.1¢	$908.16	$919.79	+$11.63	54% 2549-2182 (4731)
TE testBruno2	MOUZavg 83¢	$551.04	$522.7	+$7.42	58% 907-658 (1565)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	TYLOOavg 16¢	$163.5	$204	+$40.5	46% 916-1085 (2001)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	TYLOOavg 15¢	$149.82	$199.76	+$49.94	48% 314-345 (659)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	TYLOOavg 22.3¢	$39.24	$35.2	-$4.92	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 19.3¢	$27.84	$28.8	+$0.96	47% 10050-11152 (21202)
poshposhCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 13.6¢	$11.29	$16.6	+$5.31	58% 11423-8278 (19701)
GOLDCRYPT12CTR<$100	TYLOOavg 12¢	$6	$10	+$4	52% 916-856 (1772)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 20¢	$4.74	$3.71	+$0.1	57% 17234-12896 (30130)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MOUZ

Invested

$3,772.88

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$251.11

Record

53%

139-121 (260)

JohnLKellyJr

MOUZ

Invested

$2,107.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$6.04

Record

52%

1278-1163 (2441)

Zzzz87

MOUZ

Invested

$1,109.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.84

Record

47%

3172-3549 (6721)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

MOUZ

Invested

$908.16

Value

$919.79

PnL

+$11.63

Record

54%

2549-2182 (4731)

testBruno2

MOUZ

Invested

$551.04

Value

$522.7

PnL

+$7.42

Record

58%

907-658 (1565)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$163.5

Value

$204

PnL

+$40.5

Record

46%

916-1085 (2001)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$149.82

Value

$199.76

PnL

+$49.94

Record

48%

314-345 (659)

38791873984189CTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$39.24

Value

$35.2

PnL

-$4.92

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$27.84

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$0.96

Record

47%

10050-11152 (21202)

poshposhCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$11.29

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$5.31

Record

58%

11423-8278 (19701)

GOLDCRYPT12CTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

Value

$10

PnL

+$4

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

ghorrockCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$4.74

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTYLOO 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000TYLOO 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.