Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

17 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (52%) · MOUZ at 99¢ · $242K held · ends Nov 4

MOUZ99¢PARIVISION1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$242.2K

Combined PnL

$-14.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 98.8¢

+27% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

17 of 33 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ99%

PARIVISION1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ17 traders

Total Value$167.6K

Total Shares223,927

Combined PnL$-6.3K

PARIVISION16 traders

Total Value$72.1K

Total Shares279,599

Combined PnL$-7.8K

MOUZ — 52%PARIVISION — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PARIVISION) and the top 1000 (16 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whalePARIVISION 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QI qiu3	MOUZavg 76.9¢	$122.6K	$118.0K	$-4.6K	60% 46-31 (77)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	PARIVISIONavg 24.1¢	$48.2K	$52.0K	+$3.8K	54% 313-268 (581)
DA darkumbreon88	MOUZavg 75.8¢	$22.3K	$21.8K	-$521.27	64% 1885-1044 (2929)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	PARIVISIONavg 25¢	$13.5K	$14.0K	$-11.6K	50% 7387-7517 (14904)
CR crmannetje	MOUZavg 77.4¢	$7.5K	$7.1K	-$329.91	50% 17-17 (34)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 75¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$50	60% 1205-788 (1993)
HU hurrican	MOUZavg 76.9¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$125.95	71% 1037-427 (1464)
YI yishiwucheng	MOUZavg 97.3¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$65.03	50% 1889-1865 (3754)
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 75.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$69.75	57% 138-105 (243)
CA calculate10	MOUZavg 98.9¢	$4.8K	$2.5K	-$45.7	53% 1282-1116 (2398)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	MOUZavg 84.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$48.86	54% 2605-2224 (4829)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 84.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$164.99
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 20.6¢	$448.19	$564.32	+$116.13
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR	PARIVISIONavg 25.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$3.74	34% 80-157 (237)
Reformedx	MOUZavg 92¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$360	51% 856-822 (1678)
TG tghj20CTR	PARIVISIONavg 24.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$4.53	47% 68-78 (146)
Stickman22CTR	PARIVISIONavg 23.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$65	52% 1691-1567 (3258)
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 88.7¢	$1.2K	$985.53	-$195.56	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	MOUZavg 93.3¢	$1.0K	$929.8	-$115.03	52% 8553-7794 (16347)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 93.3¢	$933.26	$740	-$193.25
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 15.3¢	$111.57	$189.8	+$78.23
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 94.2¢	$923.06	$908.97	-$14.09	52% 14207-12987 (27194)
HL HLEbritniCTR	PARIVISIONavg 25¢	$625	$625	+$0	53% 17-15 (32)
PA papaebal	MOUZavg 75.9¢	$604.46	$589.04	-$15.42	47% 127-143 (270)
BL BlessedKaladinCTR	PARIVISIONavg 23¢	$519.58	$564.76	+$45.18	51% 1004-947 (1951)
0xheavy888CTR	PARIVISIONavg 8.4¢	$172.07	$534.65	-$122.35	56% 7694-6169 (13863)
latvian.demon	MOUZavg 76.9¢	$384.56	$370	-$14.56	54% 761-641 (1402)
38 38791873984189	MOUZavg 86.2¢	$404.72	$321.59	-$45.63	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 82.6¢	$234.79	$271.87	+$37.08	57% 19055-14098 (33153)

qiu3

MOUZ

Invested

$122,613.54

Value

$118.0K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

60%

46-31 (77)

lllllllIlllCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$48,234.44

Value

$52.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

54%

313-268 (581)

darkumbreon88

MOUZ

Invested

$22,304.51

Value

$21.8K

PnL

-$521.27

Record

64%

1885-1044 (2929)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$13,500.73

Value

$14.0K

PnL

$-11.6K

Record

50%

7387-7517 (14904)

crmannetje

MOUZ

Invested

$7,476.76

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$329.91

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,750

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$50

Record

60%

1205-788 (1993)

hurrican

MOUZ

Invested

$3,326.47

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$125.95

Record

71%

1037-427 (1464)

yishiwucheng

MOUZ

Invested

$3,128.81

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$65.03

Record

50%

1889-1865 (3754)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$2,848.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$69.75

Record

57%

138-105 (243)

calculate10

MOUZ

Invested

$4,766.79

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$45.7

Record

53%

1282-1116 (2398)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$1,751.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$48.86

Record

54%

2605-2224 (4829)

Both legs:

MOUZ$1,302.8284.7¢-$164.99

PARIVISION$448.1920.6¢+$116.13

0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,552.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$3.74

Record

34%

80-157 (237)

Reformedx

MOUZ

Invested

$1,840

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$360

Record

51%

856-822 (1678)

tghj20CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,283.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$4.53

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Stickman22CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,059.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$65

Record

52%

1691-1567 (3258)

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$1,181.09

Value

$985.53

PnL

-$195.56

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$1,044.83

Value

$929.8

PnL

-$115.03

Record

52%

8553-7794 (16347)

Both legs:

MOUZ$933.2693.3¢-$193.25

PARIVISION$111.5715.3¢+$78.23

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$923.06

Value

$908.97

PnL

-$14.09

Record

52%

14207-12987 (27194)

HLEbritniCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$625

Value

$625

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

papaebal

MOUZ

Invested

$604.46

Value

$589.04

PnL

-$15.42

Record

47%

127-143 (270)

BlessedKaladinCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$519.58

Value

$564.76

PnL

+$45.18

Record

51%

1004-947 (1951)

0xheavy888CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$172.07

Value

$534.65

PnL

-$122.35

Record

56%

7694-6169 (13863)

latvian.demon

MOUZ

Invested

$384.56

Value

$370

PnL

-$14.56

Record

54%

761-641 (1402)

38791873984189

MOUZ

Invested

$404.72

Value

$321.59

PnL

-$45.63

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$234.79

Value

$271.87

PnL

+$37.08

Record

57%

19055-14098 (33153)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

17 of 33 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PARIVISION) and the top 1000 (16 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whalePARIVISION 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPARIVISION 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.