Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors G2 (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (60%) · MOUZ at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
5
MOUZ 60%
$4.1K
-$23.14
50.4¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors G2 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LooksMaxxingx | G2avg 50¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$18.02 | 1% 7-628 (635) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | MOUZavg 50.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$43.57 | 57% 145-111 (256) |
RA RayayaCTR | MOUZavg 49¢ | $257.19 | $259.82 | +$2.62 | — |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | MOUZavg 50¢ | $198.47 | $196.49 | -$1.98 | 34% 161-312 (473) |
 Stickman22<$100 | G2avg 48¢ | $33.81 | $35.57 | +$1.76 | — 0-2 (2) |
LooksMaxxingxInvested
$1,802.36
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.02
Record
1%
7-628 (635)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$1,817.32
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$43.57
Record
57%
145-111 (256)
Invested
$257.19
Value
$259.82
PnL
+$2.62
Record
—
Invested
$198.47
Value
$196.49
PnL
-$1.98
Record
34%
161-312 (473)
Stickman22<$100Invested
$33.81
Value
$35.57
PnL
+$1.76
Record
—
0-2 (2)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.