Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (100%) · MOUZ at 80¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
5
MOUZ 100%
$11.6K
$328.82
77.9¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | MOUZavg 78¢ | $2.5K | $9.3K | +$246.39 | 57% 145-111 (256) |
RA Rayaya | MOUZavg 77¢ | $510.92 | $1.6K | +$69.5 | — |
OD Oddstorm | MOUZavg 78¢ | $435.1 | $440.68 | +$8.37 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
GH ghorrock | MOUZavg 78¢ | $33.7 | $126.2 | +$3.86 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
OM omnibus-076daa | MOUZavg 79¢ | $110.1 | $110.1 | +$0.7 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$2,539.94
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$246.39
Record
57%
145-111 (256)
Invested
$510.92
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$69.5
Record
—
Invested
$435.1
Value
$440.68
PnL
+$8.37
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$33.7
Value
$126.2
PnL
+$3.86
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$110.1
Value
$110.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.