Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.3K
$83.32
51.5¢ → 49.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$76.34 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 46¢ | $115.61 | $116.87 | +$1.26 | 53% 4574-3989 (8563) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $92.11 | $94.77 | +$2.66 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $35.59 | $41.22 | +$5.62 | 51% 1799-1729 (3528) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.9¢ | $19.5 | $17 | -$2.49 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 62.1¢ | $3.47 | $3.41 | -$0.06 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,986.62
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$76.34
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
StudyPredictionInvested
$115.61
Value
$116.87
PnL
+$1.26
Record
53%
4574-3989 (8563)
Invested
$92.11
Value
$94.77
PnL
+$2.66
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$41.22
PnL
+$5.62
Record
51%
1799-1729 (3528)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
$17
PnL
-$2.49
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$3.47
Value
$3.41
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.