Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors FURIA (68%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (86%) · MOUZ at 33¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30

MOUZ33¢FURIA67¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 86%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$124.47

Smart Money Entry

32.5¢ → 32.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ33%

FURIA68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares16,409

Combined PnL+$123.93

FURIA1 trader

Total Value$69.34

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.54

MOUZ — 86%FURIA — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxdCTR	MOUZavg 32¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$26.9	53% 1057-922 (1979)
relativesignificanceCTR	MOUZavg 33¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$20.37	58% 99-73 (172)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	MOUZavg 32¢	$860.33	$900.65	+$40.33	47% 2459-2756 (5215)
VeryLucky888CTR	MOUZavg 32¢	$725.23	$736.57	+$11.33	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	MOUZavg 35¢	$525	$532.5	+$7.5	33% 6261-12977 (19238)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	MOUZavg 32¢	$160	$177.5	+$17.5	53% 5558-4922 (10480)
AS astapzippo<$100	FURIAavg 64¢	$68.8	$69.34	+$0.54	56% 2140-1692 (3832)

forsenxdCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,721.82

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$26.9

Record

53%

1057-922 (1979)

relativesignificanceCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,344.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$20.37

Record

58%

99-73 (172)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$860.33

Value

$900.65

PnL

+$40.33

Record

47%

2459-2756 (5215)

VeryLucky888CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$725.23

Value

$736.57

PnL

+$11.33

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$525

Value

$532.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

33%

6261-12977 (19238)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$160

Value

$177.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

53%

5558-4922 (10480)

astapzippo<$100

FURIA

Invested

$68.8

Value

$69.34

PnL

+$0.54

Record

56%

2140-1692 (3832)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.