Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (67%) · MOUZ at 60¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
6
MOUZ 67%
$28.2K
-$500.28
61.3¢ → 59.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | MOUZavg 61.5¢ | $12.8K | $12.4K | -$411.94 | 58% 99-72 (171) |
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | FURIAavg 40¢ | $6.6K | $6.7K | +$83.06 | 47% 49-55 (104) |
TR TrippleEX | MOUZavg 60¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | -$50 | 58% 294-214 (508) |
RA Rayaya | MOUZavg 64¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$160 | 60% 1170-769 (1939) |
HU humbleboyCTR | FURIAavg 38¢ | $612.37 | $652.66 | +$40.29 | 54% 508-427 (935) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | MOUZavg 61.1¢ | $63.73 | $62.05 | -$1.69 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$12,786.2
Value
$12.4K
PnL
-$411.94
Record
58%
99-72 (171)
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$6,644.48
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$83.06
Record
47%
49-55 (104)
Invested
$6,000
Value
$6.0K
PnL
-$50
Record
58%
294-214 (508)
Invested
$2,560
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$160
Record
60%
1170-769 (1939)
Invested
$612.37
Value
$652.66
PnL
+$40.29
Record
54%
508-427 (935)
Invested
$63.73
Value
$62.05
PnL
-$1.69
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.