Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BetBoom Team (71%) · BetBoom Team at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3

MOUZ44¢BetBoom Team56¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BetBoom Team

Consensus Traders

BetBoom Team 71%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$109.33

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ44%

BetBoom Team56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BetBoom Team5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,012

Combined PnL+$102.2

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$361.38

Total Shares831

Combined PnL+$7.13

BetBoom Team — 71%MOUZ — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxd	BetBoom Teamavg 56¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$54.35	53% 1080-947 (2027)
HL HLEbritni	BetBoom Teamavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	57% 13-10 (23)
VeryLucky888	BetBoom Teamavg 55.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$40	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	BetBoom Teamavg 56¢	$323.07	$331.3	+$8.23	53% 5767-5107 (10874)
relativesignificanceCTR	MOUZavg 42.3¢	$182.26	$187.39	+$5.13	56% 126-98 (224)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	MOUZavg 43¢	$171.99	$173.99	+$2	51% 1616-1562 (3178)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 57¢	$43.67	$43.29	-$0.38	50% 19928-20296 (40224)

forsenxd

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,043.77

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$54.35

Record

53%

1080-947 (2027)

HLEbritni

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

VeryLucky888

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,670

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$40

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

BetBoom Team

Invested

$323.07

Value

$331.3

PnL

+$8.23

Record

53%

5767-5107 (10874)

relativesignificanceCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$182.26

Value

$187.39

PnL

+$5.13

Record

56%

126-98 (224)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$171.99

Value

$173.99

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1616-1562 (3178)

omnibus-076daa<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$43.67

Value

$43.29

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

19928-20296 (40224)

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BetBoom Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.