Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (36%) · MOUZ at 72¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
14
MOUZ 36%
1 arb excluded
$17.7K
$14.57
70.7¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
42% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | MOUZavg 71¢ | $7.1K | $7.1K | +$49.98 | 58% 310-220 (530) |
RA Rayaya | MOUZavg 70¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$60 | 60% 1195-785 (1980) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 29¢ | $8.0K | $2.3K | -$40 | 47% 2636-2950 (5586) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 28.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$20 | 58% 43911-31950 (75861) |
 SatanishippieCTR | BetBoom Teamavg 29¢ | $1.0K | $965.52 | -$34.48 | 48% 326-353 (679) |
 hasobidale | MOUZavg 70¢ | $804.99 | $827.99 | +$23 | 65% 232-127 (359) |
 pup1CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 28¢ | $668.26 | $680.19 | +$11.93 | 46% 1979-2359 (4338) |
SP spartachioCTR | BetBoom Teamavg 30¢ | $696.86 | $650.4 | -$34.84 | 48% 706-768 (1474) |
 relativesignificance | MOUZavg 72¢ | $639.91 | $639.91 | -$0 | 56% 126-98 (224) |
SU suntori | MOUZavg 71.9¢ | $126.64 | $126.86 | +$0.22 | 45% 13215-16086 (29301) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 29¢ | $400.25 | $114.07 | -$2 | 65% 1818-997 (2815) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 28¢ | $111.99 | $113.99 | +$2 | 51% 1616-1563 (3179) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | BetBoom Teamavg 28.8¢ | $93.89 | $92.91 | -$0.98 | 47% 13872-15352 (29224) |
GH ghorrockARB<$100 | MOUZavg 71¢ | $200.83 | $78.78 | -$0.63 | 57% 17528-13093 (30621) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 71¢ | $50.72 | $51.07 | +$0.36 | |
| └ BetBoom Team leg | BetBoom Teamavg 29¢ | $28.69 | $27.7 | -$0.99 | |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | BetBoom Teamavg 30¢ | $5.16 | $4.9 | -$0.26 | 48% 5736-6182 (11918) |
Invested
$7,096.12
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$49.98
Record
58%
310-220 (530)
Invested
$2,799.96
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$60
Record
60%
1195-785 (1980)
Invested
$7,999.98
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$40
Record
47%
2636-2950 (5586)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,140
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$20
Record
58%
43911-31950 (75861)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$965.52
PnL
-$34.48
Record
48%
326-353 (679)
hasobidaleInvested
$804.99
Value
$827.99
PnL
+$23
Record
65%
232-127 (359)
pup1CTRInvested
$668.26
Value
$680.19
PnL
+$11.93
Record
46%
1979-2359 (4338)
Invested
$696.86
Value
$650.4
PnL
-$34.84
Record
48%
706-768 (1474)
relativesignificanceInvested
$639.91
Value
$639.91
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
126-98 (224)
Invested
$126.64
Value
$126.86
PnL
+$0.22
Record
45%
13215-16086 (29301)
Invested
$400.25
Value
$114.07
PnL
-$2
Record
65%
1818-997 (2815)
Invested
$111.99
Value
$113.99
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
1616-1563 (3179)
Invested
$93.89
Value
$92.91
PnL
-$0.98
Record
47%
13872-15352 (29224)
Invested
$200.83
Value
$78.78
PnL
-$0.63
Record
57%
17528-13093 (30621)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.16
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.26
Record
48%
5736-6182 (11918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
TrippleEX
MOUZ — $7.1K
Rayaya
MOUZ — $2.9K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTRBetBoom Team — $2.3K
VeryLucky888
CTRBetBoom Team — $1.1K
Satanishippie
CTRBetBoom Team — $965.52
hasobidale
MOUZ — $827.99
pup1
CTRBetBoom Team — $680.19
spartachio
CTRBetBoom Team — $650.4
relativesignificance
MOUZ — $639.91
suntori
MOUZ — $126.86