Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold maybe, while the market favors MORROW (51%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: MORROW vs maybe - Map 1 Winner
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (100%) · maybe at 49¢ · $277 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
maybe
4
maybe 100%
$277.38
$4.36
48.7¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutralmaybe at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors MORROW 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTR | maybeavg 48¢ | $246.12 | $253.81 | +$7.69 | 79% 50-13 (63) |
TE testBruno2CTR<$100 | maybeavg 57.7¢ | $27.5 | $13.61 | -$2.25 | 57% 795-589 (1384) |
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100 | maybeavg 58.1¢ | $12.11 | $5.99 | -$1.05 | 93% 2975-231 (3206) |
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR<$100 | maybeavg 50¢ | $4 | $3.96 | -$0.04 | 58% 152-111 (263) |
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dFI121CTRInvested
$246.12
Value
$253.81
PnL
+$7.69
Record
79%
50-13 (63)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$13.61
PnL
-$2.25
Record
57%
795-589 (1384)
Invested
$12.11
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$1.05
Record
93%
2975-231 (3206)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.04
Record
58%
152-111 (263)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.