Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold prodigy, while the market favors Monte (86%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Monte vs prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold prodigy (67%) · prodigy at 14¢ · $184 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
prodigy
3
prodigy 67%
1 arb excluded
$183.99
$27.66
Research grade
Avoidprodigy at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Monte 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100 | Monteavg 86.5¢ | $75.27 | $79.14 | +$3.87 | 54% 2417-2096 (4513) |
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100 | Monteavg 88¢ | $43.07 | $53.86 | +$10.79 | 52% 9159-8551 (17710) |
| └ Monte leg | Monteavg 88¢ | $31.46 | $30.75 | -$0.72 | |
| └ prodigy leg | prodigyavg 7¢ | $11.61 | $23.11 | +$11.51 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | prodigyavg 7.4¢ | $26.41 | $49.97 | +$23.56 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | prodigyavg 11¢ | $0.8 | $1.02 | +$0.22 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100Invested
$75.27
Value
$79.14
PnL
+$3.87
Record
54%
2417-2096 (4513)
Invested
$43.07
Value
$53.86
PnL
+$10.79
Record
52%
9159-8551 (17710)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.41
Value
$49.97
PnL
+$23.56
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.22
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.