Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LPH Gaming, while the market favors mixLVLT (52%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: mixLVLT vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group B

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LPH Gaming (38%) · LPH Gaming at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

mixLVLT52¢LPH Gaming48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LPH Gaming

Consensus Traders

LPH Gaming 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$894.38

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 48.5¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLPH Gaming at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LPH Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors mixLVLT 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

mixLVLT52%

LPH Gaming49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LPH Gaming3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,969

Combined PnL-$839.07

mixLVLT5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL-$55.3

LPH Gaming — 38%mixLVLT — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on LPH Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLPH Gaming 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000mixLVLT 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	LPH Gamingavg 68.9¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$823.26	58% 22-16 (38)
CA calculate10	mixLVLTavg 42.6¢	$504.11	$660.49	+$181.46	29% 49-120 (169)
31 319113331313111	mixLVLTavg 33.7¢	$1.1K	$311.15	+$101.75	57% 121-93 (214)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	LPH Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$252	-$10.5	54% 475-399 (874)
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 50¢	$131.25	$173.25	+$42
└ mixLVLT leg	mixLVLTavg 50¢	$131.25	$78.75	-$52.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	LPH Gamingavg 27¢	$213.5	$241.83	+$116.53	33% 320-651 (971)
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 27¢	$91.8	$137.7	+$90.9
└ mixLVLT leg	mixLVLTavg 44.9¢	$78.5	$104.13	+$25.63
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	mixLVLTavg 47.9¢	$906.68	$231.17	+$42.75	62% 107-65 (172)
└ mixLVLT leg	mixLVLTavg 47.9¢	$152.8	$161.24	-$39.48
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 51.5¢	$72.76	$69.94	+$82.23
CI cigarettes	mixLVLTavg 72.7¢	$430.65	$177.66	-$252.99	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
poshposh	mixLVLTavg 58¢	$145.54	$75.32	-$70.22	47% 549-607 (1156)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	LPH Gamingavg 41¢	$183.31	$28.18	-$19.08	49% 97-100 (197)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	mixLVLTavg 47¢	$42.3	$27	-$15.3	41% 265-378 (643)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	LPH Gamingavg 52.6¢	$18.65	$21.92	+$3.26	41% 562-807 (1369)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

LPH Gaming

Invested

$1,997.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$823.26

Record

58%

22-16 (38)

calculate10

mixLVLT

Invested

$504.11

Value

$660.49

PnL

+$181.46

Record

29%

49-120 (169)

319113331313111

mixLVLT

Invested

$1,081.29

Value

$311.15

PnL

+$101.75

Record

57%

121-93 (214)

NotJumpARB<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$262.5

Value

$252

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

LPH Gaming$131.2550¢+$42

mixLVLT$131.2550¢-$52.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$213.5

Value

$241.83

PnL

+$116.53

Record

33%

320-651 (971)

Both legs:

LPH Gaming$91.827¢+$90.9

mixLVLT$78.544.9¢+$25.63

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

mixLVLT

Invested

$906.68

Value

$231.17

PnL

+$42.75

Record

62%

107-65 (172)

Both legs:

mixLVLT$152.847.9¢-$39.48

LPH Gaming$72.7651.5¢+$82.23

cigarettes

mixLVLT

Invested

$430.65

Value

$177.66

PnL

-$252.99

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

poshposh

mixLVLT

Invested

$145.54

Value

$75.32

PnL

-$70.22

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

LPH Gaming

Invested

$183.31

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$19.08

Record

49%

97-100 (197)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

mixLVLT

Invested

$42.3

Value

$27

PnL

-$15.3

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

sentrioCTR<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$18.65

Value

$21.92

PnL

+$3.26

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

Research grade

NeutralLPH Gaming at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LPH Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors mixLVLT 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on LPH Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLPH Gaming 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000mixLVLT 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LPH Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.