Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (100%) · Eternal Fire at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Eternal Fire
6
Eternal Fire 100%
$12.7K
$2.5K
66.1¢ → 100¢
+51% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEternal Fire at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | Eternal Fireavg 65.8¢ | $4.9K | $7.4K | +$2.5K | 57% 99-76 (175) |
 StudyPrediction | Eternal Fireavg 65.5¢ | $2.6K | $4.0K | -$39.98 | 53% 4574-3989 (8563) |
 hasobidale | Eternal Fireavg 66¢ | $801.9 | $1.2K | -$6.08 | 66% 220-111 (331) |
46 467j6yj<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 98¢ | $81.77 | $82.61 | +$1.63 | 97% 3294-115 (3409) |
 noreasapa<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 99.2¢ | $76.16 | $76.01 | -$0.14 | 91% 3574-334 (3908) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 68¢ | $5 | $5 | +$1.6 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$4,862.76
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
57%
99-76 (175)
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,619.97
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$39.98
Record
53%
4574-3989 (8563)
hasobidaleInvested
$801.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$6.08
Record
66%
220-111 (331)
Invested
$81.77
Value
$82.61
PnL
+$1.63
Record
97%
3294-115 (3409)
noreasapa<$100Invested
$76.16
Value
$76.01
PnL
-$0.14
Record
91%
3574-334 (3908)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.6
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.