Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (62%) · Eternal Fire at 100¢ · $80K held · ends Oct 30

MIBR<1¢Eternal Fire>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 62%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$80.3K

Combined PnL

$-10.9K

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

8 of 13 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MIBR0%

Eternal Fire100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MIBR5 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares28,447

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Eternal Fire8 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares40,175

Combined PnL$-15.3K

MIBR — 38%Eternal Fire — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	MIBRavg 44.3¢	$16.6K	$19.2K	+$2.7K	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 71.8¢	$18.0K	$18.7K	+$654.18	54% 496-424 (920)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 28.9¢	$5.6K	$13.5K	+$7.9K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 71.8¢	$12.5K	$5.2K	$-7.3K
noreasapa	Eternal Fireavg 99.9¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$4.07	91% 3574-334 (3908)
II iii252ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 53.4¢	$6.7K	$8.1K	+$1.4K	56% 1126-867 (1993)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 10.8¢	$873.08	$5.7K	+$3.3K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 53.4¢	$4.3K	$2.4K	$-1.9K
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 73.9¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	+$422.32	59% 773-548 (1321)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 22.7¢	$1.5K	$4.6K	+$3.1K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 73.9¢	$4.7K	$1.9K	$-2.6K
46 467j6yj	Eternal Fireavg 95¢	$18.8K	$5.9K	$-12.9K	97% 3294-115 (3409)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 60.6¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$435.59	52% 13723-12523 (26246)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 33.2¢	$1.3K	$2.6K	+$1.4K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 60.6¢	$1.9K	$939.82	-$957.76
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	MIBRavg 40¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	51% 343-335 (678)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 52.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$128.88	58% 18579-13641 (32220)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 42.3¢	$630.64	$1.0K	+$413.92
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 52.6¢	$1.3K	$719.7	-$542.8
forsenxd	Eternal Fireavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$453.3	53% 1057-923 (1980)
DE delacsynzy1	Eternal Fireavg 58.4¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$973.23	52% 454-426 (880)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 61.6¢	$1,000	$974.98	-$25.02	53% 3165-2784 (5949)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 41¢	$400	$682.93	+$282.93
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 61.6¢	$600	$292.06	-$307.94
DumplingBMF	Eternal Fireavg 40.5¢	$1.2K	$912.18	-$454.88	68% 1813-844 (2657)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	MIBRavg 14¢	$138.14	$640.71	+$502.57	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
daddyradar	Eternal Fireavg 54.5¢	$895.31	$493.2	-$402.12	66% 79-41 (120)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 32.2¢	$344.75	$323.03	-$21.72	54% 1083-937 (2020)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 69.3¢	$165.53	$175.64	+$10.1
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 32.2¢	$179.2	$147.39	-$31.82
PI PIPIZIN	Eternal Fireavg 59¢	$300	$152.54	-$147.46	52% 415-390 (805)
poshposhCTR<$100	MIBRavg 35.1¢	$33.46	$66.79	+$33.33	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	MIBRavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$7	+$2.05	62% 1124-678 (1802)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Eternal Fireavg 98.2¢	$9.82	$3	-$6.82	86% 5084-858 (5942)

RN1CTR

MIBR

Invested

$16,583.2

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

pnhctARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$18,023.65

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$654.18

Record

54%

496-424 (920)

Both legs:

MIBR$5,553.7828.9¢+$7.9K

Eternal Fire$12,469.8771.8¢$-7.3K

noreasapa

Eternal Fire

Invested

$8,126.83

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$4.07

Record

91%

3574-334 (3908)

iii252ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,710.7

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

56%

1126-867 (1993)

Both legs:

MIBR$873.0810.8¢+$3.3K

Eternal Fire$4,324.1153.4¢$-1.9K

aaaa298ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,616.06

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$422.32

Record

59%

773-548 (1321)

Both legs:

MIBR$1,491.3822.7¢+$3.1K

Eternal Fire$4,684.7373.9¢$-2.6K

467j6yj

Eternal Fire

Invested

$18,789.26

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-12.9K

Record

97%

3294-115 (3409)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$3,153.33

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$435.59

Record

52%

13723-12523 (26246)

Both legs:

MIBR$1,255.7533.2¢+$1.4K

Eternal Fire$1,897.5860.6¢-$957.76

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

MIBR

Invested

$1,541.76

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

343-335 (678)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,893.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$128.88

Record

58%

18579-13641 (32220)

Both legs:

MIBR$630.6442.3¢+$413.92

Eternal Fire$1,262.5152.6¢-$542.8

forsenxd

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,414.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$453.3

Record

53%

1057-923 (1980)

delacsynzy1

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$973.23

Record

52%

454-426 (880)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,000

Value

$974.98

PnL

-$25.02

Record

53%

3165-2784 (5949)

Both legs:

MIBR$40041¢+$282.93

Eternal Fire$60061.6¢-$307.94

DumplingBMF

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,230.24

Value

$912.18

PnL

-$454.88

Record

68%

1813-844 (2657)

topdogbigboiCTR

MIBR

Invested

$138.14

Value

$640.71

PnL

+$502.57

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

daddyradar

Eternal Fire

Invested

$895.31

Value

$493.2

PnL

-$402.12

Record

66%

79-41 (120)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$344.75

Value

$323.03

PnL

-$21.72

Record

54%

1083-937 (2020)

Both legs:

MIBR$165.5369.3¢+$10.1

Eternal Fire$179.232.2¢-$31.82

PIPIZIN

Eternal Fire

Invested

$300

Value

$152.54

PnL

-$147.46

Record

52%

415-390 (805)

poshposhCTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$33.46

Value

$66.79

PnL

+$33.33

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$2.05

Record

62%

1124-678 (1802)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$9.82

Value

PnL

-$6.82

Record

86%

5084-858 (5942)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

8 of 13 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.